Immanuel Quickley's steals prop presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 40% overs across his last 10 games with a 4-6-0 record. The under has generated a positive 14.6% ROI while overs have burned bettors at -23.6%. With his average matching the typical 0.9 line exactly, the market appears slightly inflated.
Expert Analysis
Quickley's steal production reveals a player whose defensive impact doesn't translate to consistent fantasy counting stats. His 0.9 average perfectly aligns with standard lines, but the 60% under rate tells the real story about market inefficiency. The Raptors guard's role has evolved since his trade from New York, focusing more on offensive facilitation than aggressive perimeter defense. Toronto's defensive scheme often positions Quickley in help situations rather than gambling for steals in passing lanes. His 14.6% ROI on unders suggests the market consistently overvalues his steal potential, likely influenced by his active hands and quick reflexes that don't always translate to recorded steals. The recent trend shows books haven't fully adjusted to his reduced steal opportunities in Toronto's system. With limited split data available, the straight numbers paint a clear picture of a player whose steal props are systematically overpriced. The current one-game under streak aligns with his broader pattern of failing to reach inflated expectations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under rate and positive 14.6% ROI create a sustainable edge against consistently overpriced lines. Quickley's role in Toronto's system limits his steal opportunities compared to market expectations. Target unders when the line sits at 0.5 or 1.5, as his 0.9 average suggests frequent zero-steal performances. The main risk is a defensive-minded game script that forces more aggressive play, but his recent usage patterns support continued under value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Immanuel Quickley's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Quickley has gone 4-6-0 on steals overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of over bets. This translates to a -23.6% ROI for over bettors while unders have generated a positive 14.6% return during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Immanuel Quickley Steals last 10 games?
Bet the under on Quickley's steals props. The 60% under rate and positive ROI create a clear edge, especially when lines sit at 0.5 or 1.5. His role in Toronto's system consistently limits steal opportunities below market expectations.
What's Immanuel Quickley's average Steals last 10 games?
Quickley is averaging exactly 0.9 steals over his last 10 games, which perfectly matches the typical market line of 0.9. This alignment suggests the market is accurately pricing his average but overvaluing his upside potential for overs.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Quickley steal unders when facing teams with strong ball security or when Toronto plays slower-paced games. His steal production suffers most when the Raptors aren't forcing turnovers as a team defensive strategy.