Herbert Jones has hit the over on three-pointers made in exactly half his last 10 games with a 5-5-0 record, averaging 1.7 makes against a 1.4 line. Despite the positive 0.3 differential, both sides show negative ROI at -4.5%, suggesting market efficiency. Lean slightly toward the over based on the consistent differential.
Expert Analysis
Herbert Jones's three-point shooting presents a fascinating case study in market precision over his last 10 games. The 5-5-0 over/under split perfectly illustrates how sportsbooks have dialed in his prop line, yet the 1.7 average against a 1.4 line reveals consistent undervaluation. This 0.3 differential suggests Jones is making roughly one extra three-pointer every three games compared to market expectations. The negative ROI on both sides indicates tight margins and efficient pricing, but the over differential persists despite market adjustments. Jones's role as a versatile forward who spots up from deep creates natural variance - he'll either connect on multiple attempts in games where New Orleans pushes pace and creates open looks, or struggle when opponents force him into contested shots. The longest streaks of four games in each direction show this isn't random noise but reflects real game-to-game variance in shot quality and volume. Without clear splits data, the edge appears modest but consistent, driven by Jones's improving three-point stroke and the Pelicans' offensive system that generates quality perimeter looks for role players.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The consistent 0.3 differential above the line over 10 games suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to Jones's improved three-point shooting. While the 50% hit rate appears neutral, the averaging 1.7 makes against 1.4 lines creates value for patient over bettors. Target games where New Orleans faces up-tempo opponents or when Jones sees increased minutes due to injuries, but avoid back-to-backs where his shot selection might suffer.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
Compare Herbert Jones props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Herbert Jones's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Herbert Jones has gone 5-5-0 on three-pointers made overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of overs. He's averaging 1.7 makes against a typical 1.4 line, showing consistent performance above market expectations despite the even split.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Herbert Jones 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Lean toward betting the over on Herbert Jones's three-pointers made props. The 0.3 differential above the line over 10 games suggests market undervaluation, despite the 50% over rate. Target favorable matchups and avoid back-to-back situations.
What's Herbert Jones's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Herbert Jones is averaging 1.7 three-pointers made over his last 10 games compared to the typical 1.4 line. This positive 0.3 differential indicates he's consistently exceeding market expectations, making roughly one extra three-pointer every three games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert Jones three-point overs when the Pelicans face up-tempo teams that create more possessions and open looks. Avoid betting his props on back-to-back games where shot selection and legs might be compromised, affecting his shooting efficiency.