Herbert Jones has delivered exceptional steal prop value over his last 10 games, hitting the over at a 60% clip while averaging 2.1 steals against a 1.5 line. The +0.6 differential and +14.6% ROI on overs signals legitimate edge. Lean Over with medium conviction.
Expert Analysis
Herbert Jones's steal production surge reflects his elite defensive instincts finally translating to consistent statistical output. The 2.1 average against a 1.5 line represents a significant 40% cushion that suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his recent defensive aggression. Jones's 6-4-0 over record isn't just variance—it's the product of increased playing time in crucial defensive situations and his natural ability to read passing lanes. The Pelicans' improved pace under their current system has created more possessions and transition opportunities where Jones thrives as a disruptor. His steal rate has historically been volatile, but the consistency over this 10-game sample suggests genuine improvement in positioning and anticipation. The +14.6% ROI on overs demonstrates clear market inefficiency, while the contrasting -23.6% under ROI confirms that betting against this trend has been costly. Jones's defensive versatility allows him to guard multiple positions, increasing his steal opportunities across different matchups. However, the small sample size remains a concern, and regression toward his career averages could emerge. The current two-game over streak aligns with his recent defensive intensity, but streaks in steal props are notoriously fragile due to the somewhat random nature of deflections and opponent ball security.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Herbert Jones's 2.1 steal average significantly exceeds the typical 1.5 line, creating consistent value despite the inherent volatility in steal props. The 60% over rate and positive ROI indicate genuine edge rather than random variance. Target games where the Pelicans face turnover-prone opponents or up-tempo matchups that maximize possessions. Main risk is regression to career norms and the unpredictable nature of steal opportunities game-to-game.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Steals Prop Lines
Compare Herbert Jones props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Herbert Jones's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Herbert Jones has gone over his steals prop in 6 of his last 10 games for a 60% over rate. His record stands at 6-4-0, with the +14.6% ROI on overs showing consistent profitability for over bettors during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Herbert Jones Steals last 10 games?
Lean over on Herbert Jones steals props. His 2.1 average significantly exceeds typical 1.5 lines, creating consistent value. The 60% over rate and positive ROI indicate genuine edge, though volatility in steal props requires selective betting.
What's Herbert Jones's average Steals last 10 games?
Herbert Jones is averaging 2.1 steals over his last 10 games, which is 0.6 steals above the typical 1.5 line. This 40% cushion above the betting line represents significant value for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert Jones steal overs when the Pelicans face turnover-prone teams or high-pace matchups that create more possessions. His defensive versatility shines against ball-dominant guards and in transition-heavy games where deflection opportunities increase.