Herbert Jones's steals prop at home presents a perfectly balanced 10-10 record with a modest 0.5 edge over the 1.2 line, averaging 1.65 steals per game. The -4.5% ROI on both sides suggests efficient market pricing with minimal exploitable value.
Expert Analysis
Herbert Jones's home steals performance reveals a fascinating case study in market efficiency. While his 1.65 average creates a theoretical 0.5 edge over the standard 1.2 line, the perfectly split 10-10 record and negative ROI on both sides tell a more complex story. The Pelicans' defensive scheme at home likely provides Jones with consistent steal opportunities through his elite anticipation and active hands, explaining why he consistently exceeds the baseline. However, the market has clearly adjusted to this reality. Jones's defensive versatility allows him to guard multiple positions, creating varied steal opportunities depending on matchups. The recent streak patterns show volatility, with a longest under streak of five games suggesting the prop can go cold despite his defensive prowess. Home court advantage typically benefits defensive players through crowd energy and familiarity with sight lines, which may explain his elevated average. Yet the balanced record indicates that books have found the optimal line pricing. Without significant split data showing specific advantageous conditions, this appears to be a prop where Jones's talent meets efficient market pricing, creating a push-heavy environment rather than sustainable edges.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. Despite Herbert Jones averaging 1.65 steals against a 1.2 line at home, the perfectly balanced 10-10 record and -4.5% ROI on both sides indicate efficient market pricing. The 0.5 theoretical edge is negated by juice and variance, creating a break-even proposition at best.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 7.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Herbert Jones's Steals prop record home games?
Herbert Jones has gone 10-10 on his steals over/under at home games, hitting exactly 50.0% of overs with a -4.5% ROI on both sides across 20 games from November 2023 to April 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Herbert Jones Steals home games?
Pass on Herbert Jones's steals props at home. While he averages 1.65 against a 1.2 line, the perfectly balanced 10-10 record and negative ROI indicate the market has efficiently priced this prop.
What's Herbert Jones's average Steals home games?
Herbert Jones averages 1.65 steals per home game, creating a 0.5 edge over the typical 1.2 line. However, this theoretical advantage hasn't translated to profitable betting opportunities based on historical results.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Herbert Jones's steals props at home unless you identify specific matchup advantages. The current data shows no clear timing edge, with the market efficiently pricing his defensive capabilities.