Herbert Jones has hit the steals over in just 40.0% of games this season (18-27 record), creating a clear under edge despite averaging 1.42 steals against a 1.23 line. The +14.6% ROI on unders reflects consistent market overvaluation of his defensive counting stats.
Expert Analysis
The market consistently overrates Herbert Jones's steal production, creating a sustainable edge on the under. While Jones averages 1.42 steals per game against a typical 1.23 line, this +0.19 differential masks the volatility inherent in defensive counting stats. Steals are among the most unpredictable basketball statistics, heavily dependent on opponent pace, game flow, and defensive scheme deployment. Jones's 40.0% over rate suggests the market hasn't adjusted for this reality. The nine-game under streak earlier this season demonstrates how quickly steal props can turn cold, even for elite defenders. Jones remains one of the league's premier perimeter defenders, but his steal numbers fluctuate based on New Orleans's defensive assignments and whether opponents attack his side of the floor. The Pelicans often deploy Jones on primary scorers, which can limit his roaming opportunities for steals. Additionally, as teams increasingly recognize his defensive prowess, they're more likely to avoid his coverage areas entirely. The -23.6% ROI on overs reflects consistent market overvaluation, while the +14.6% under ROI demonstrates the profitability of fading inflated expectations. This trend appears sustainable given the inherent variance in steal production and the market's tendency to overweight defensive reputation.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 40.0% over rate and +14.6% under ROI create a clear mathematical edge, though Jones's elite defensive reputation keeps this from being a slam dunk. Target games where the Pelicans face slower-paced opponents or when Jones draws tough defensive assignments that limit his roaming ability. The main risk is a hot shooting stretch where increased defensive pressure leads to more steal opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Herbert Jones's Steals prop record all games?
Herbert Jones has gone over his steals prop in just 18 of 45 games this season (40.0% rate), with 27 unders. His -23.6% ROI on overs shows consistent market overvaluation of his steal production despite his elite defensive reputation.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Herbert Jones Steals all games?
Lean under on Herbert Jones steals props. The 40.0% over rate and +14.6% under ROI create a mathematical edge, as the market consistently overvalues steal production even for elite defenders due to the stat's inherent volatility.
What's Herbert Jones's average Steals all games?
Herbert Jones averages 1.42 steals per game against a typical line of 1.23, creating a +0.19 differential. However, this modest edge masks significant volatility, as evidenced by his 40.0% over rate despite the favorable average.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert Jones steals unders when New Orleans faces slower-paced teams or when Jones draws primary scorer assignments. Avoid betting after long under streaks, as variance can quickly swing in either direction with defensive counting stats.