Herbert Jones has been a consistent under performer on one day's rest, hitting the over just 32.3% of the time across 31 games with a brutal -38.4% ROI for over bettors. His 9.84 average falls 0.3 points short of his typical 10.15 line, creating clear value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Herbert Jones's scoring struggles on one day's rest reflect the broader challenge role players face when dealing with compressed schedules. As New Orleans's defensive anchor and energy player, Jones expends significant physical capital on the less glamorous end of the floor, leaving him with diminished offensive output when recovery time is limited. The 0.3-point deficit between his actual average and typical line may seem modest, but it represents a meaningful edge over 31 games. His longest under streak of seven games demonstrates how these physical limitations can compound, while his current two-game over streak appears more like noise than signal reversal. The consistency of this underperformance—hitting just one-third of overs—suggests this isn't random variance but a legitimate pattern tied to Jones's role and physical demands. Without elite offensive skills to fall back on when energy wanes, Jones becomes increasingly dependent on defensive plays turning into easy baskets, which happen less frequently when his legs aren't fresh. The sample size provides confidence this trend has staying power, particularly given how it aligns with Jones's profile as a player whose offensive production is highly dependent on physical condition and energy levels.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Herbert Jones's 32.3% over rate on one day's rest creates legitimate value, especially given the logical connection between his defensive workload and offensive struggles on short rest. Target this when the line sits at 10 or higher, as books haven't fully adjusted for his compressed-schedule limitations. The main risk is small sample variance, but the underlying reasoning remains sound for a role player whose offense depends heavily on energy and athleticism.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 8.5 | 24.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 8.5 | 18.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 9.5 | 5.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 10.5 | 6.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 8.5 | 18.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 11.5 | 11.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 10.5 | 16.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 12.5 | 7.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 9.5 | 13.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 9.5 | 7.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 11.5 | 6.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 12.5 | 6.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 9.5 | 13.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Herbert Jones's Points prop record 1 day rest?
Herbert Jones is 10-21-0 over/under on points props with one day's rest, hitting just 32.3% of overs across 31 games. This represents one of the more reliable under trends for role players dealing with compressed schedules.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Herbert Jones Points 1 day rest?
Bet the under on Herbert Jones points with one day's rest. The 32.3% over rate and -0.3 point differential from his line create clear value, especially when books set the number at 10 or higher.
What's Herbert Jones's average Points 1 day rest?
Herbert Jones averages 9.84 points on one day's rest compared to his typical 10.15 line, creating a 0.3-point edge. This consistent underperformance spans 31 games and reflects his role as an energy-dependent defensive player.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert Jones under when he's playing on one day's rest with lines at 10 or higher. His physical style and defensive workload create the most pronounced scoring struggles during compressed scheduling situations.