Herbert Jones has hit the over in just 40% of his last 10 games, going 4-6-0 with a brutal -23.6% ROI on overs. Despite averaging 11.3 points against a 10.5 line, the under has been the profitable side with +14.6% returns. Lean Under.
Expert Analysis
Herbert Jones presents a classic case where raw averages deceive bettors into taking overs. While his 11.3 points per game over the last 10 contests sits 0.8 points above the typical 10.5 line, the distribution tells a different story entirely. The New Orleans forward has managed just four overs in 10 attempts, creating a significant edge for under bettors who've enjoyed a healthy 14.6% return on investment. This disconnect between average and hit rate suggests Jones is prone to volatile scoring nights, likely posting big games that inflate his average while consistently falling short on other evenings. The Pelicans' offensive hierarchy places Jones as a complementary scorer whose production heavily depends on game flow and the health of primary options. His defensive-first mentality means scoring often takes a backseat when New Orleans needs stops, and his current two-game under streak aligns with this pattern. The 40% over rate indicates books may be overvaluing his offensive contributions, particularly given his role as a role player whose minutes and shots can fluctuate dramatically based on matchups and team needs.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 40% over rate combined with profitable under returns creates a clear edge despite Jones averaging above the line. His role as a defensive specialist means scoring consistency remains elusive, and the current two-game under streak suggests regression toward his complementary offensive role. Target unders when New Orleans faces strong offensive teams requiring defensive focus.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-27 | OPP | 11.5 | 4.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 11.5 | 8.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 12.5 | 19.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 8.5 | 24.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 8.5 | 18.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 9.5 | 13.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 9.5 | 5.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 10.5 | 6.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Herbert Jones's Points prop record last 10 games?
Herbert Jones has gone 4-6-0 on his Points prop over the last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. This poor over rate has resulted in a -23.6% ROI for over bettors during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Herbert Jones Points last 10 games?
Bet the under on Herbert Jones Points props. Despite averaging 11.3 points, he's hit overs just 40% of the time while under bettors have profited with +14.6% returns over his last 10 games.
What's Herbert Jones's average Points last 10 games?
Herbert Jones has averaged 11.3 points over his last 10 games, which sits 0.8 points above the typical 10.5 line. However, this average is misleading given his poor 40% over rate during this period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert Jones under bets when New Orleans faces high-scoring opponents requiring defensive focus. His complementary role means scoring takes a backseat when the Pelicans prioritize stops, making unders more likely in competitive games.