Herbert Jones presents a compelling under opportunity in home games with a dismal 33.3% over rate across 27 games. His 9-18 over/under record generates a strong +27.3% ROI on unders despite averaging just 0.5 points above the typical line. The current two-game under streak aligns with this dominant pattern.
Expert Analysis
Herbert Jones's home scoring struggles stem from his defensive-first role within the Pelicans' system, where his offensive responsibilities diminish in familiar surroundings. The 33.3% over rate across 27 home games isn't a small sample fluke—it represents a systematic underperformance that books haven't fully adjusted for. His 10.48 home average barely exceeds the 10.02 line, creating consistent value on unders. The -36.4% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors chasing points that rarely materialize. Jones's defensive workload intensifies at home where the Pelicans can dictate pace and matchups, often relegating him to energy plays rather than offensive sets. The seven-game under streak earlier this season demonstrates how quickly these props can cascade when his role contracts. With no meaningful splits suggesting home court advantage for his scoring, the trend appears structural rather than variance-driven. The recent two-game under streak suggests regression toward this established norm after any brief offensive upticks.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Herbert Jones's 33.3% home over rate across 27 games creates systematic value on unders, supported by a +27.3% ROI. His defensive-focused home role consistently limits scoring opportunities despite books setting lines near his modest 10.48 average. Target unders when the line sits at 10+ points, particularly in games where the Pelicans control pace and can emphasize his defensive contributions over offensive production.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-27 | OPP | 11.5 | 4.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 11.5 | 8.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 8.5 | 24.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 8.5 | 18.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 10.5 | 6.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 8.5 | 18.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 11.5 | 11.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 10.5 | 16.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 9.5 | 3.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 11.5 | 6.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 10.5 | 17.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 12.5 | 6.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 9.5 | 14.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 9.5 | 22.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Herbert Jones's Points prop record home games?
Herbert Jones has gone over his points prop in just 9 of 27 home games (33.3%) this season, posting a 9-18 over/under record. This poor over rate has generated a -36.4% ROI for over bettors while under bettors have enjoyed a profitable +27.3% return.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Herbert Jones Points home games?
Bet under on Herbert Jones's points props in home games. His 33.3% over rate and +27.3% under ROI across 27 games create clear value. His defensive-first role at home consistently limits scoring opportunities, making unders the sharp play.
What's Herbert Jones's average Points home games?
Herbert Jones averages 10.48 points in home games compared to a typical line of 10.02, giving him just a +0.5 differential. This minimal edge over the betting line explains why unders hit 66.7% of the time at home.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert Jones under props when the line is set at 10+ points in home games where the Pelicans can control pace. His defensive workload intensifies at home, creating the best conditions for under bets to cash consistently.