Herbert Jones has been an under bettor's dream this season, hitting the under on his points prop 60.4% of the time across 53 games with a stellar +15.3% ROI. The Pelicans forward averages just 10.53 points against a 10.18 line, but more importantly, he's failed to cover in 32 of 53 attempts. This is a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Herbert Jones's points prop presents a compelling under case built on role consistency and market inefficiency. The New Orleans forward has established himself as a defensive specialist who contributes across multiple categories without being a primary scoring option. His 39.6% over rate isn't just bad luck—it reflects his actual role in the Pelicans' offense where he ranks behind Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, and Trey Murphy III in the pecking order. The +15.3% ROI on unders demonstrates genuine market value, suggesting oddsmakers consistently overvalue his scoring upside. Jones's current two-game under streak pales in comparison to his season-long 10-game under streak, indicating this isn't variance but systematic underperformance relative to expectations. The minimal +0.3 average differential above his line masks the frequency with which he falls short, as his scoring tends to be inconsistent game-to-game. His defensive responsibilities often limit offensive touches, and when the Pelicans are healthy, his usage rate drops significantly. The market appears to price him based on his occasional explosive games rather than his consistent role as a complementary piece.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Herbert Jones's 60.4% under rate and +15.3% ROI create a sustainable edge against inflated lines. The market consistently overvalues his scoring potential while underweighting his defensive-first role. Target unders when the Pelicans are healthier and Jones's usage naturally decreases. The main risk is his occasional ceiling games that can skew perceptions, but his floor appears more predictable than his upside.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-27 | OPP | 11.5 | 4.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 11.5 | 8.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 12.5 | 19.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 8.5 | 24.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 8.5 | 18.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 9.5 | 13.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 9.5 | 5.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 10.5 | 6.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 8.5 | 18.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 11.5 | 11.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 10.5 | 16.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 12.5 | 7.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 9.5 | 13.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Herbert Jones's Points prop record all games?
Herbert Jones has gone under his points prop in 32 of 53 games this season (60.4%), producing a +15.3% ROI for under bettors. His over record stands at just 21-32-0, making him one of the more reliable under plays.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Herbert Jones Points all games?
Bet under on Herbert Jones's points props. His 60.4% under rate and +15.3% ROI demonstrate consistent value, as the market overvalues his scoring upside relative to his defensive-first role in New Orleans's offense.
What's Herbert Jones's average Points all games?
Herbert Jones averages 10.53 points per game against an average line of 10.18, a minimal +0.3 differential. However, this small edge masks his tendency to fall short frequently, hitting the under 60.4% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert Jones under bets when the Pelicans roster is healthier and his usage naturally decreases. His defensive responsibilities and role as the fifth scoring option create the most favorable conditions for under success.