Herbert Jones blocks props away from home present a perfectly balanced betting puzzle with an 11-11 record but a meaningful +0.2 average differential above the typical 0.55 line. The Pelicans forward averages 0.77 blocks per away game, suggesting consistent value on overs despite the even win-loss record.
Expert Analysis
Herbert Jones's away blocks performance reveals a fascinating disconnect between win rate and actual production value. While his 50% over rate suggests coin-flip randomness, the 0.77 average against a 0.55 line indicates consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers. This +0.2 differential represents a 36% edge over the posted number, which is substantial for a defensive stat typically set with precision. The negative ROI on both sides reflects the vig rather than poor performance, as Jones consistently produces near his average without extreme variance. Road games often see increased defensive intensity as teams adjust to hostile environments, and Jones's role as New Orleans's primary perimeter stopper becomes more crucial. The lack of extreme streaks (longest over streak of 3, under streak of 4) suggests steady production rather than boom-bust patterns. However, the even record indicates that books may be learning to adjust, and the sample size of 22 games spans nearly a full season, providing statistical relevance. The key question becomes whether this differential persists or if regression toward the mean eliminates the edge moving forward.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +0.2 average differential above typical lines provides mathematical value despite the even record. Herbert Jones consistently produces blocks at a rate 36% higher than oddsmakers expect in away games. Target games where the line sits at 0.5, as Jones's 0.77 average suggests strong over value. Main risk is sample size regression and potential line adjustments as books recognize the pattern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Herbert Jones's Blocks prop record away games?
Herbert Jones has gone 11-11 on blocks overs in away games, hitting exactly 50% while averaging 0.77 blocks per game. The even record masks consistent production above the typical 0.55 line, creating a +0.2 differential that suggests undervalued props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Herbert Jones Blocks away games?
Lean over on Herbert Jones blocks props in away games. His 0.77 average significantly exceeds typical 0.5-0.5 lines, providing mathematical value despite the even win-loss record. Target games where books post conservative numbers under 0.6.
What's Herbert Jones's average Blocks away games?
Herbert Jones averages 0.77 blocks per away game, which sits 0.2 blocks above the typical 0.55 line. This 36% edge over posted numbers represents consistent value, even though his over-under record sits at an even 11-11.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert Jones blocks overs when lines are posted at 0.5 or lower in away games. His 0.77 road average provides strongest value against conservative numbers. Avoid when books adjust to 0.5 or higher, as the edge diminishes significantly.