Herbert Jones has hit the assists over in exactly half his last 10 games (5-5 record) while averaging 3.4 assists against a 2.8 line. The +0.6 differential suggests consistent value, but negative ROI on both sides indicates efficient market pricing with minimal edge available.
Expert Analysis
Herbert Jones's assist production over his last 10 games reveals a player exceeding market expectations by a meaningful margin, yet failing to generate profitable betting opportunities. The 3.4 average against a 2.8 line represents a 21.4% cushion that should theoretically favor overs, but the 50% hit rate suggests books have accurately priced his increased playmaking role. Jones has evolved from a pure defensive specialist into a more versatile contributor, particularly when Zion Williamson or Brandon Ingram miss time, forcing him into expanded ball-handling duties. The assist differential indicates he's genuinely improved as a passer, but the market has caught up. His recent inconsistency is telling - alternating between games with 5+ assists and games with 1-2 dimes. This volatility stems from New Orleans's injury-riddled season creating unpredictable usage patterns. When the Pelicans are healthy, Jones reverts to his defensive stopper role with minimal creation responsibilities. However, with key players frequently sidelined, he's thrust into situations requiring more facilitation than his natural skill set suggests. The negative ROI on both sides signals a well-calibrated line where neither side offers sustainable value, making this more about game-specific matchups than systematic trends.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. While Herbert Jones averages 3.4 assists against a 2.8 line, the 50% over rate and negative ROI on both sides indicate the market has properly adjusted to his expanded role. The assist production is too dependent on teammate availability and game script to provide consistent value. Only consider overs in specific spots where multiple Pelicans guards are confirmed out.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
Compare Herbert Jones props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Herbert Jones's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Herbert Jones has gone over his assists prop in 5 of his last 10 games for a 50% success rate. He's averaging 3.4 assists against a typical 2.8 line, showing consistent production above market expectations despite the even split.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Herbert Jones Assists last 10 games?
Pass on Herbert Jones assists props based on recent trends. Despite averaging 0.6 assists above the line, the 50% over rate and negative ROI on both sides indicate the market has adjusted efficiently to his expanded playmaking role.
What's Herbert Jones's average Assists last 10 games?
Herbert Jones averages 3.4 assists over his last 10 games compared to a typical 2.8 line. This +0.6 differential represents solid production above market expectations, though it hasn't translated to profitable betting opportunities due to inconsistent game-to-game results.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert Jones assists overs when multiple Pelicans ball-handlers are injured, forcing him into expanded creation duties. Avoid betting his assists in games where New Orleans has full health, as he reverts to his defensive specialist role.