Gradey Dick's rebounding props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% of overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -1.1 average differential. The second-year wing's 2.1 rebounds per game sits well below typical 3.2 lines, creating consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Dick's rebounding struggles stem from his role as a perimeter-focused wing in Toronto's rotation. At 6'8" but playing primarily on the wing, Dick operates away from the glass, focusing on spacing and transition rather than crashing boards. His 2.1 rebound average represents a significant regression from his rookie campaign, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to his evolved role. The Raptors' frontcourt depth with Jakob Poeltl, Scottie Barnes, and RJ Barrett limits Dick's rebounding opportunities, as he's often the fourth or fifth option on the glass. His longest under streak of four games demonstrates the consistency of this trend, while his maximum over streak of just two games shows how rarely he exceeds expectations. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of inflated lines that consistently overestimate his rebounding production. Dick's defensive rebounding rate has declined as Toronto utilizes him more as a floor-spacer, making these low totals sustainable rather than due for regression. The sample size of 10 games provides solid confidence, especially given the clear role-based reasoning behind the trend.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Dick's perimeter-heavy role and consistent underperformance against inflated lines create ongoing value. Target games where Toronto faces smaller lineups or faster-paced opponents that limit second-chance opportunities. The main risk is potential role expansion if injuries thin Toronto's frontcourt, but his current usage pattern strongly favors continued under results.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Gradey Dick's Rebounds prop record last 10 games?
Dick has gone 3-7-0 on rebounding overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of over bets. He's averaging 2.1 rebounds against typical lines around 3.2, creating a -1.1 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Gradey Dick Rebounds last 10 games?
Bet the under on Dick's rebounding props. His 30% over rate and -1.1 average differential create clear value, especially with books consistently overestimating his production given his perimeter-focused role in Toronto's system.
What's Gradey Dick's average Rebounds last 10 games?
Dick is averaging 2.1 rebounds over his last 10 games, sitting 1.1 boards below typical lines around 3.2. This significant gap reflects books overvaluing his rebounding potential given his current wing-heavy role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dick rebounding unders when Toronto faces smaller lineups or high-pace teams that limit offensive rebounding chances. Avoid games where frontcourt injuries might expand his role near the basket significantly.