Gradey Dick has quietly emerged as a consistent scoring threat, hitting the over in 6 of his last 10 games while averaging 15.5 points against a 13.8 line. The +1.7 differential and 14.6% ROI on overs reflects his expanding role in Toronto's offense. This presents a solid lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Dick's scoring surge stems from increased opportunity within Toronto's rebuilding framework, where young players receive extended minutes to develop. The 15.5 point average represents a meaningful leap from his rookie campaign, driven by improved three-point shooting consistency and more aggressive shot selection. His 60% over rate isn't fluky—it reflects legitimate offensive growth as the Raptors prioritize his development over veteran rotation players. The +1.7 differential suggests books are still catching up to his expanded role, particularly in games where Toronto rests veterans or faces pace-up spots. However, the modest 10-game sample and Toronto's inconsistent rotations create some volatility. Dick's scoring can fluctuate based on game flow and whether the Raptors are competitive or in blowout territory. The recent two-game over streak aligns with his increased usage, but regression remains possible if his three-point shooting returns to earlier season levels. Still, the underlying opportunity and developmental priority make his scoring props attractive, especially when lines haven't fully adjusted to his expanded role.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Dick's 15.5 point average against a 13.8 line creates legitimate value, supported by Toronto's commitment to his development and increased offensive responsibility. The 60% over rate reflects real growth rather than variance. Target overs when Toronto faces up-tempo opponents or when veteran players are rested, maximizing his usage opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-21 | OPP | 13.5 | 17.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 11.5 | 13.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-09 | OPP | 12.5 | 11.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 15.5 | 14.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 16.5 | 22.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 14.5 | 18.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 13.5 | 12.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 11.5 | 23.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 13.5 | 8.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 15.5 | 17.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Gradey Dick's Points prop record last 10 games?
Dick has hit the over in 6 of his last 10 games for a 60% success rate, generating a solid 14.6% ROI on over bets while under bets have produced a -23.6% return.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Gradey Dick Points last 10 games?
Lean over on Dick's points props. His 15.5 point average exceeds the typical 13.8 line by 1.7 points, reflecting genuine offensive growth that books haven't fully recognized in their pricing adjustments.
What's Gradey Dick's average Points last 10 games?
Dick is averaging 15.5 points over his last 10 games, which is 1.7 points above the standard 13.8 line, creating consistent value for over bettors in this recent sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dick's points overs when Toronto faces high-pace opponents or rests veteran players, maximizing his usage. Avoid when the Raptors are heavy underdogs in potential blowout scenarios that could limit his minutes.