Gradey Dick's points props show modest value on the under with a 46.2% over rate across 13 games. The second-year wing averages 13.85 points against a 12.81 line, but the -11.9% ROI on overs suggests the market has overcorrected. Lean under with measured expectations.
Expert Analysis
Dick's scoring profile reflects the growing pains of a developing role player finding his footing in Toronto's rotation. The 13.85 average against a 12.81 line creates a deceptive +1.0 differential that masks underlying volatility in his usage patterns. As a second-year player still establishing consistent minutes, Dick's scoring output remains heavily dependent on game flow and matchup-specific opportunities rather than guaranteed touches. The 46.2% over rate suggests books are pricing in his upside potential while the market hasn't fully adjusted to his actual consistency level. The negative ROI on overs (-11.9%) indicates that while Dick can exceed expectations, he does so less frequently than his lines suggest. His scoring tends to come in bunches when Toronto's offense flows through him, but quiet nights are equally common when the Raptors lean on their veteran options. The current two-game over streak shouldn't overshadow the longer pattern of inconsistency that defines his early career trajectory. Without clear splits data, the safest assumption is that Dick's scoring remains matchup and rotation dependent.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The positive under ROI (+2.8%) combined with the sub-50% over rate suggests books are still pricing Dick's ceiling rather than his floor. His 13.85 average creates line value, but the volatility in his role makes unders the safer long-term play. Target spots where Toronto faces strong perimeter defense or when Dick's minutes might be limited by game script.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-21 | OPP | 13.5 | 17.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 11.5 | 13.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-09 | OPP | 12.5 | 11.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 15.5 | 14.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 16.5 | 22.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 14.5 | 18.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 13.5 | 12.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 11.5 | 23.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 13.5 | 8.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 15.5 | 17.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 10.5 | 10.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 10.5 | 8.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Gradey Dick's Points prop record all games?
Dick's points props show a 6-7-0 over/under record across 13 games, hitting overs just 46.2% of the time. This below-average over rate suggests his lines may be inflated relative to his actual scoring consistency.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Gradey Dick Points all games?
Lean under on Dick's points props. The +2.8% ROI on unders versus -11.9% on overs indicates better long-term value betting against his inflated lines, especially given his 46.2% over rate.
What's Gradey Dick's average Points all games?
Dick averages 13.85 points per game against an average line of 12.81, creating a +1.0 differential. However, this modest edge is offset by inconsistent performance that favors under betting despite the higher average.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dick's points unders when Toronto faces strong perimeter defenses or in games where veteran players are likely to dominate touches. His developing role creates more value on unders than chasing his ceiling performances.