Goga Bitadze's points props on one day rest present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 36.4% over rate across 11 games. The Orlando center averages 8.36 points against a 9.23 line, creating a consistent 0.9-point edge for under bettors.
Expert Analysis
Bitadze's struggles on one day rest stem from Orlando's rotation management and his role limitations as a backup center. The 0.9-point differential between his 8.36 average and typical 9.23 line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced effectiveness in back-to-back scenarios. His 21.5% ROI on unders demonstrates consistent value, while the brutal -30.6% over ROI warns against chasing his ceiling games. The sample size of 11 games provides solid statistical foundation, spanning over a year of data. Bitadze's limited offensive upside becomes more pronounced with fatigue, as his already modest usage rate drops further when Orlando prioritizes veteran players in compressed schedules. The longest under streak of three games shows his floor can be remarkably low, while his longest over streak maxes at just one game. This pattern reflects a player whose scoring depends heavily on favorable matchups and energy levels, both compromised on short rest. Orlando's pace and offensive efficiency also tend to dip in these spots, limiting opportunities for role players like Bitadze to exceed modest expectations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.9-point edge and 21.5% under ROI create legitimate value, though the modest sample size prevents high conviction. Target this trend when Bitadze's line sits at 9+ points, especially against teams that limit center production. Main risk is a blowout scenario where garbage time inflates his minutes, but Orlando's competitive nature makes this less likely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 13.5 | 19.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 12.5 | 8.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 11.5 | 18.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-09 | OPP | 8.5 | 2.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 13.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-01 | OPP | 7.5 | 3.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 8.5 | 11.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-21 | OPP | 8.5 | 5.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 8.5 | 8.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-17 | OPP | 9.5 | 2.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Goga Bitadze's Points prop record 1 day rest?
Goga Bitadze is 4-7 over/under on points props with one day rest, hitting overs just 36.4% of the time across 11 games spanning from November 2023 to December 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Goga Bitadze Points 1 day rest?
Bet under on Goga Bitadze points props with one day rest. His 8.36 average against 9.23 lines creates consistent value, with unders producing 21.5% ROI compared to -30.6% on overs.
What's Goga Bitadze's average Points 1 day rest?
Goga Bitadze averages 8.36 points on one day rest, nearly a full point below his typical 9.23 line. This 0.9-point differential has created consistent under value across 11 tracked games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bitadze points unders when his line is 9+ points on one day rest, especially against defensive teams. Avoid in potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate his minutes and scoring opportunities.