Goga Bitadze's points prop shows a clear under bias with just 42.1% overs across 19 games. His 9.16 average barely exceeds the 9.08 line, but the -19.6% ROI on overs versus +10.5% on unders reveals consistent underperformance. The under side presents value.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a compelling picture for Bitadze's scoring limitations. His 42.1% over rate across 19 games isn't just poor luck—it reflects his role as Orlando's backup center focused primarily on defense and rebounding. The razor-thin 0.08 differential between his average and typical line suggests oddsmakers have him pegged correctly, yet bettors consistently overestimate his offensive output. This creates a systematic edge on the under. Bitadze's inconsistent minutes and limited offensive skill set make him prone to quiet scoring nights, especially when Orlando's primary scorers are healthy. His defensive-minded approach means he rarely forces shots, and his limited range keeps him dependent on easy looks near the basket. The -19.6% ROI on overs tells the real story—this isn't variance, it's a pattern. Centers like Bitadze who lack consistent offensive roles often see their scoring props inflated by casual bettors who overvalue their size and potential. The under trend should persist as long as he remains in a complementary role, making this one of the more reliable under plays in the prop market.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 42.1% over rate combined with negative ROI on overs creates a clear edge, though the small sample size prevents high conviction. Bitadze's role limitations and the consistent underperformance pattern favor the under, but his low usage makes him volatile. Target unders when his line sits at 9 or higher, as that's where the value peaks.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-01 | OPP | 12.5 | 8.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 13.5 | 19.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 12.5 | 8.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 11.5 | 18.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 9.5 | 15.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-13 | OPP | 9.5 | 12.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-09 | OPP | 8.5 | 2.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 9.5 | 4.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 6.5 | 15.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 13.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-01 | OPP | 7.5 | 3.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 8.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 8.5 | 11.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Goga Bitadze's Points prop record all games?
Bitadze's points prop record stands at 8-11-0 over/under across 19 games, hitting just 42.1% overs. His 9.16 scoring average barely exceeds the typical 9.08 line, showing consistent underperformance against market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Goga Bitadze Points all games?
Bet the under on Bitadze's points props. The 42.1% over rate and -19.6% ROI on overs create clear value on the under side. His backup role and limited offensive skills make quiet scoring nights the norm.
What's Goga Bitadze's average Points all games?
Bitadze averages 9.16 points across all games, just 0.08 points above his typical 9.08 line. This minimal differential masks his tendency to fall short, as the under has hit 57.9% of the time despite the close average.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bitadze under bets when his line reaches 9+ points, where the value peaks. Avoid betting his props in small sample stretches or when Orlando's rotation is unclear due to injuries affecting his minutes.