Gary Trent Jr.'s home points props present a clear under opportunity, with the over hitting just 41.2% of the time across 17 games. Despite averaging only 0.2 points above his typical line, the under delivers a solid 12.3% ROI while overs hemorrhage value at -21.4%. Lean Under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Gary Trent Jr.'s home scoring patterns that savvy bettors can exploit. His 7-10 over/under record at home isn't just bad luck—it reflects systematic factors working against his scoring output in Toronto. The minimal 0.2-point differential between his 15.35 average and typical 15.15 lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his home struggles, creating persistent value on unders. Trent Jr.'s role as a secondary scorer means his home production likely suffers from increased defensive attention in familiar surroundings, where opponents have more tape and preparation time. The -21.4% ROI on overs indicates this isn't variance but a genuine edge, while the 12.3% under ROI demonstrates consistent profitability. His current one-game under streak follows the pattern, and with longest under streaks reaching four games, momentum often builds. The lack of dramatic splits suggests this home disadvantage is consistent rather than situational, making it a reliable betting angle. However, regression risk exists if his role expands or if the Raptors' offensive system changes significantly.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Gary Trent Jr.'s home points props offer consistent value with the under hitting 58.8% of the time while generating positive ROI. The key edge lies in oddsmakers' failure to fully account for his diminished home scoring, creating a 0.2-point cushion that consistently favors unders. Target this prop when lines sit around his 15.15 average, but avoid if the number drops significantly below 14.5, as that would eliminate the edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 22.5 | 16.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 18.5 | 20.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 18.5 | 23.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 19.5 | 18.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 20.5 | 18.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 19.5 | 18.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 16.5 | 31.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 14.5 | 16.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 13.5 | 17.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 12.5 | 11.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 10.5 | 25.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 10.5 | 8.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 11.5 | 4.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 11.5 | 6.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Gary Trent Jr.'s Points prop record home games?
Gary Trent Jr. has gone over his points prop in just 7 of 17 home games (41.2%), posting a 7-10-0 record. This 58.8% under rate has generated a profitable 12.3% ROI for under bettors while overs lose money at -21.4%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Gary Trent Jr. Points home games?
Bet under on Gary Trent Jr.'s home points props. The 58.8% under hit rate and positive 12.3% ROI make this a profitable long-term play, especially when lines hover around his 15.15 average where the edge is strongest.
What's Gary Trent Jr.'s average Points home games?
Gary Trent Jr. averages 15.35 points in home games, just 0.2 points above his typical line of 15.15. This minimal differential creates consistent value on unders since oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his home struggles.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gary Trent Jr. under props when he's at home and the line sits near his 15.15 average. Avoid if the number drops significantly below 14.5, as this eliminates the key edge that makes this trend profitable.