Fred VanVleet's three-pointers made prop at home shows marginal over value with a 48.6% over rate (17-18-0) and averages 3.11 made versus a 2.84 line. The +0.27 differential suggests slight upside, but negative ROI on overs (-7.3%) indicates the market has adjusted. Lean under with low conviction.
Expert Analysis
VanVleet's home three-point production presents a classic case of market efficiency catching up to player performance. While his 3.11 average at home exceeds the typical 2.84 line by a meaningful 0.27 makes, the 48.6% over rate falls short of the 52.4% needed for profitability at standard -110 odds. The negative 7.3% ROI on overs tells the real story - books have likely adjusted lines upward throughout the season as VanVleet's volume became established in Houston's system. His role as the primary perimeter creator for the Rockets means consistent attempt volume, but home games haven't provided the expected boost that many shooters experience with familiar rims and crowd energy. The relatively balanced longest streaks (4 overs, 4 unders) suggest this isn't a streaky prop prone to extended runs. Without pace or usage differentials between home and road splits, VanVleet's three-point production appears more dependent on game script and opponent defensive schemes than venue. The market has likely reached equilibrium on his home props, making this more of a coin flip than an exploitable edge.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with LOW confidence. The negative ROI on overs despite a slight average edge suggests the market has corrected for VanVleet's consistent volume. Target games against elite perimeter defenses or when Houston faces pace-down spots that could limit his attempts. Primary risk is VanVleet getting hot early and forcing extra attempts in blowout situations where garbage time could push him over.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 10.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Fred VanVleet's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
VanVleet has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 17 of 35 home games (48.6% rate) with an 17-18-0 record. He averages 3.11 makes at home against typical lines around 2.84, showing consistent volume but market-adjusted pricing.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Fred VanVleet 3-Pointers Made home games?
Lean under on VanVleet's three-pointers made props at home. Despite averaging above typical lines, the -7.3% ROI on overs indicates the market has adjusted. Target games against strong perimeter defenses or slower-paced opponents for better under value.
What's Fred VanVleet's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
VanVleet averages 3.11 three-pointers made in home games compared to typical prop lines around 2.84. This +0.27 differential suggests consistent volume, but the market has likely adjusted lines upward throughout the season to account for his role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target VanVleet three-point unders when Houston faces elite perimeter defenses or in pace-down spots. Avoid betting overs in potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate his attempts. Game script matters more than venue for his props.