Franz Wagner's steals prop shows exceptional value on one day's rest, hitting the over in 61.1% of games with a +16.7% ROI. Wagner averages 1.14 steals against a typical 0.81 line, creating a consistent +0.3 edge. This is a strong lean over situation.
Expert Analysis
Wagner's elevated steal production on one day's rest stems from his increased defensive aggression when properly rested. The 22-14 over record across 36 games represents a significant sample size that suggests this isn't random variance. Wagner's role as Orlando's primary perimeter defender becomes more impactful when he's not dealing with back-to-back fatigue, allowing him to take calculated risks in passing lanes. The +0.3 differential between his actual average (1.14) and typical lines (0.81) indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to this rest advantage. His longest over streak of six games demonstrates the sustainability of this trend, while the relatively short three-game under streak suggests quick regression to his elevated baseline. The Magic's defensive scheme relies heavily on Wagner's versatility, and one day's rest allows him to maintain the lateral quickness necessary for effective steal opportunities. However, the -25.8% under ROI warns against betting this trend blindly, as game script and opponent pace can still override the rest advantage.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Wagner's 61.1% over rate on one day's rest creates legitimate value, particularly when lines sit at 0.5 or 1.0 steals. The +0.3 average differential provides consistent edge over a meaningful 36-game sample. Primary risk comes from defensive game scripts where Orlando protects leads rather than pressing for turnovers, but Wagner's natural steal instincts make this a profitable long-term approach.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Franz Wagner's Steals prop record 1 day rest?
Wagner's steals prop on one day's rest shows a 22-14-0 over/under record (61.1% overs) across 36 games from November 2023 to March 2025, generating a +16.7% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Franz Wagner Steals 1 day rest?
Bet the over on Wagner's steals when he has one day's rest. His 1.14 average significantly exceeds typical 0.81 lines, creating consistent value with 61.1% hit rate over 36 games.
What's Franz Wagner's average Steals 1 day rest?
Wagner averages 1.14 steals on one day's rest compared to the typical 0.81 line, creating a +0.3 differential that represents significant value for over bettors in this specific rest situation.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wagner steals overs specifically on one day's rest when lines are set at 0.5 or 1.0. Avoid back-to-back games and consider opponent pace as secondary factors.