Franz Wagner's steals prop presents a compelling over opportunity with a 57.9% hit rate (33-24-0) and consistent value above the typical 0.8 line. His 1.07 average creates a meaningful +0.27 differential that has generated +10.5% ROI on overs across 57 games, making this a high-conviction play.
Expert Analysis
Wagner's steals success stems from Orlando's defensive system that maximizes his 6'10" wingspan and basketball IQ in passing lanes. His versatility allows him to guard multiple positions, creating more steal opportunities than typical forwards who stay closer to the basket. The Magic's pace and defensive philosophy encourage aggressive help defense, where Wagner excels at reading passing angles and timing his movements. His 1.07 average significantly exceeds the standard 0.8 line, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to his defensive impact. The consistency is notable—even during his longest under streak of just 3 games, he bounced back quickly. His 6-game over streak demonstrates the sustainability of this edge. The +10.5% ROI on overs versus -19.6% on unders creates clear directional value. Wagner's role as a primary defender and help-side disruptor makes this production less volatile than guards who rely purely on gambling for steals. The sample size of 57 games provides statistical significance, and his defensive fundamentals suggest this isn't regression-prone. Orlando's competitive games and defensive intensity maintain the conditions that generate these steal opportunities consistently.
Betting Verdict
OVER with HIGH confidence. Wagner's 1.07 average creates substantial value against the 0.8 line, backed by a 57.9% hit rate and +10.5% ROI. His defensive role and physical tools make this production sustainable rather than luck-based. The ideal conditions exist in competitive games where Orlando's defensive system maximizes his steal opportunities. The main risk is potential line adjustment, but current value remains significant.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Steals Prop Lines
Compare Franz Wagner props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Franz Wagner's Steals prop record all games?
Franz Wagner has gone over his steals prop in 33 of 57 games (57.9%) while going under 24 times. This 33-24-0 record demonstrates consistent value, with his longest over streak reaching 6 games compared to just 3 games for his longest under streak.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Franz Wagner Steals all games?
Bet the OVER on Franz Wagner's steals props. His 1.07 average significantly exceeds the typical 0.8 line, creating a +0.27 differential that has produced +10.5% ROI. The 57.9% hit rate across 57 games provides a reliable edge backed by his defensive role.
What's Franz Wagner's average Steals all games?
Franz Wagner averages 1.07 steals per game, which is 0.27 steals above the standard 0.8 line. This meaningful differential has created consistent value for over bettors, translating to a 57.9% success rate and positive ROI across his 57-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wagner's steals overs in competitive games where Orlando's defensive intensity peaks. His versatile defensive role and physical tools create consistent opportunities regardless of matchup. Avoid when the line moves above 1.0, but standard 0.8 lines offer excellent value given his 1.07 average.