Franz Wagner's assists prop shows a marginal edge toward overs in away games, hitting 53.8% with a 21-18-0 record across 39 games. His 3.95 average essentially matches the typical 3.91 line, creating a narrow but consistent advantage. This represents a lean over opportunity with modest upside.
Expert Analysis
Wagner's away assists trend reflects the subtle dynamics of Orlando's offensive structure on the road. At 3.95 assists per away game versus a 3.91 average line, Wagner consistently finds himself in facilitating roles when the Magic play outside Amway Center. The 53.8% over rate suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his road playmaking tendencies, particularly as Orlando's offense often runs more through Wagner's creation when facing hostile environments. The positive 2.8% ROI on overs validates this edge, while the concerning -11.9% under ROI indicates significant value destruction for contrarian bettors. Wagner's assist production appears tied to Orlando's pace and his usage in road settings, where the team may rely more heavily on his versatility to generate offense. The moderate sample size of 39 games provides reasonable confidence, though the narrow differential means this edge could evaporate quickly with line adjustments. The current streak of one over suggests recent form aligns with the broader trend, but Wagner's assist totals remain volatile enough that individual game contexts matter significantly.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Wagner's 53.8% over rate and positive ROI create a legitimate but narrow edge in away settings. The ideal approach involves targeting games where Orlando faces defensive pressure that could elevate Wagner's playmaking role. Primary risk lies in the thin margin between his average and typical lines, making this vulnerable to quick market corrections.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Franz Wagner's Assists prop record away games?
Wagner posts a 21-18-0 record on assists overs in away games, hitting 53.8% across 39 road contests. This translates to a modest but consistent edge over typical market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Franz Wagner Assists away games?
Lean toward the over on Wagner's assists in away games. The 53.8% hit rate and positive 2.8% ROI create legitimate value, though the edge is narrow enough to require selective timing.
What's Franz Wagner's average Assists away games?
Wagner averages 3.95 assists in away games compared to the typical 3.91 line, creating a slim +0.04 differential. This small but consistent gap forms the foundation of the over trend.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wagner assists overs when Orlando faces defensive teams that could force more ball movement through his hands. Avoid when the Magic are expected to dominate pace or when Wagner's usage might decrease.