Evan Mobley's home scoring props present a clear under opportunity, going under in 61.9% of home games with an 8-13 over/under record. The Cavaliers center averages 15.29 points at home against a typical 15.64 line, creating consistent value on the under with +18.2% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a systematic underperformance by Mobley in Cleveland's home environment, where he consistently falls short of market expectations. His 15.29 home scoring average trails the typical 15.64 line by 0.35 points, but more importantly, this gap has proven persistent across 21 games spanning over a year. The -27.3% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't fully adjusted to Mobley's home tendencies. Several factors likely contribute to this pattern. At home, the Cavaliers often build larger leads, reducing Mobley's fourth-quarter minutes and garbage-time scoring opportunities. Additionally, Cleveland's home crowd and familiar environment may lead to more balanced offensive distribution, with Mobley taking on more of a facilitating role rather than aggressive scoring. The current two-game under streak aligns with his longest under streak of five games, suggesting this isn't random variance but a meaningful trend. His home scoring consistency issues become more pronounced when considering that bookmakers haven't significantly adjusted their lines despite this clear pattern. The 38.1% over rate across this substantial sample size indicates a market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Mobley's home scoring props offer legitimate value based on a year-plus sample showing consistent underperformance against market lines. The +18.2% under ROI combined with his 0.35-point negative differential creates an edge worth exploiting. Target these props when Cleveland is favored at home, as larger leads typically reduce Mobley's scoring opportunities in competitive fourth quarters.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 16.5 | 7.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 19.5 | 16.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-08 | OPP | 17.5 | 21.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 19.5 | 17.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 16.5 | 20.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 15.5 | 12.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 15.5 | 12.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 14.5 | 4.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 13.5 | 12.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 14.5 | 14.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 13.5 | 14.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 14.5 | 14.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-05 | OPP | 12.5 | 11.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 15.5 | 16.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 15.5 | 20.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Evan Mobley's Points prop record home games?
Mobley's home points props show an 8-13 over/under record, hitting the under in 61.9% of games. This represents a clear pattern across 21 home games spanning from October 2023 to February 2025, indicating consistent underperformance against market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Evan Mobley Points home games?
Bet the under on Mobley's home points props. The data shows +18.2% ROI on unders versus -27.3% on overs, with his 15.29 home average trailing typical 15.64 lines. This edge has persisted across a meaningful sample size.
What's Evan Mobley's average Points home games?
Mobley averages 15.29 points in home games, which runs 0.35 points below the typical market line of 15.64. This consistent gap has created profitable under opportunities, with the market appearing slow to adjust despite the clear pattern.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mobley's home points unders when Cleveland is favored, especially in games with higher totals where blowout potential exists. His scoring opportunities diminish in comfortable home wins, making these the ideal spots to exploit the market inefficiency.