Evan Mobley's assist props present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 20.0% over the last 10 games with a brutal 2-8-0 record. His 2.2 average sits half an assist below the typical 2.7 line, generating strong 52.7% ROI on unders. This trend favors consistent under betting.
Expert Analysis
Mobley's assist struggles reflect Cleveland's evolving offensive identity and his role as primarily a rim-running big rather than a facilitating hub. The 2.2 average against a 2.7 line creates meaningful value, especially considering his longest under streak reached six games, indicating this isn't random variance but systematic underperformance. The Cavaliers' pace and ball movement patterns appear to limit Mobley's playmaking opportunities, with Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell handling primary creation duties. His assist rate has declined as Cleveland prioritizes his scoring and rebounding contributions over facilitation. The 61.8% ROI loss on overs suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to this reality. Regression is possible if Cleveland increases his touches in the high post or runs more offense through him, but his current usage pattern strongly supports continued under performance. The consistency of this trend across different opponents and game situations strengthens the case for systematic factors rather than temporary shooting luck by teammates.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 20.0% over rate and consistent underperformance against the line create solid value, particularly with Cleveland's current offensive structure limiting Mobley's playmaking role. Target unders when the line sits at 2.5 or higher for maximum edge. Main risk is offensive scheme changes that increase his facilitating responsibilities or pace-up games that create more possession opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Evan Mobley's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Evan Mobley has gone 2-8-0 on assist overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20.0% of over bets. He's averaging 2.2 assists per game during this stretch, consistently falling short of typical betting lines around 2.7.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Evan Mobley Assists last 10 games?
Bet under on Mobley's assists. The 20.0% over rate and 52.7% ROI on unders create strong value. His role as rim-runner rather than facilitator in Cleveland's offense supports continued underperformance against inflated lines.
What's Evan Mobley's average Assists last 10 games?
Mobley is averaging 2.2 assists over his last 10 games, sitting 0.5 assists below the typical 2.7 line. This half-assist gap has created consistent value for under bettors throughout the sample period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mobley assist unders when lines sit at 2.5 or higher, especially in games where Cleveland faces strong perimeter defense that limits his passing lanes. Avoid in pace-up spots against weak defensive teams.