Evan Mobley's assists props show marginal value at home with a 52.6% over rate (10-9-0) and 3.05 average versus 2.82 typical lines. The +0.23 differential suggests slight upside, but recent regression with two straight unders and minimal ROI edge makes this a cautious lean over situation.
Expert Analysis
Mobley's home assist production reveals a player whose playmaking slightly elevates in familiar surroundings, though the edge remains thin. The 3.05 home average against typical 2.82 lines creates theoretical value, but the modest 52.6% over rate and near-break-even ROI (+0.5% over, -9.6% under) suggest this isn't a systematic advantage. Cleveland's home court provides Mobley with better rhythm and positioning for outlet passes and secondary assists, particularly in transition where the Cavaliers excel. However, the current two-game under streak mirrors his season-long inconsistency in the facilitator role. As a center who averages just over three assists per game, Mobley's playmaking remains secondary to his scoring and rebounding responsibilities. The lack of dramatic splits data indicates this is more about marginal improvements in comfort level rather than a fundamental shift in usage or role. Books appear aware of this slight home bump, often adjusting lines accordingly. The persistence of this trend depends heavily on Cleveland's pace and Mobley's integration into their offensive sets, both of which can fluctuate game-to-game based on matchups and game script.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The 3.05 home average provides a small but measurable edge against standard 2.82 lines, and Mobley's playmaking does show subtle improvements in Cleveland. However, the minimal ROI advantage and recent regression streak prevent this from being a strong play. Target overs when lines sit at 2.5 or below, particularly against faster-paced opponents where Mobley sees more transition opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Evan Mobley's Assists prop record home games?
Mobley's assists prop record at home stands at 10-9-0 for a 52.6% over rate across 19 games. He averages 3.05 assists per home game, creating a +0.23 differential against typical 2.82 lines, though the edge produces only marginal ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Evan Mobley Assists home games?
Lean over on Mobley's assists at home, but with low confidence. The 3.05 average beats standard lines by 0.23, but recent regression and minimal ROI suggest this isn't a systematic edge. Only bet when lines drop to 2.5 or below.
What's Evan Mobley's average Assists home games?
Mobley averages 3.05 assists per home game compared to typical 2.82 lines, creating a +0.23 differential. This modest bump reflects improved court vision and comfort at home, though the advantage isn't dramatic enough for consistent profit.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mobley assists overs when lines drop to 2.5 at home, particularly against faster-paced teams that create more transition opportunities. Avoid during back-to-backs or when Cleveland faces elite defensive teams that limit secondary playmaking chances.