Duncan Robinson has hit the over in 60% of his last 10 games with a perfectly balanced 11.1 average against an 11.1 line. The positive 14.6% ROI on overs suggests market inefficiency despite the tight differential. This creates a lean over opportunity in the right spots.
Expert Analysis
Robinson's 6-4 over record masks a fascinating equilibrium where his production exactly matches market expectations on average, yet overs still generate positive returns. This suggests the betting market is slightly undervaluing Robinson's ceiling games while properly pricing his floor. The 14.6% ROI on overs indicates that when Robinson exceeds his line, he does so meaningfully, likely driven by his three-point variance and Miami's offensive system that can create explosive shooting nights. The current one-game under streak is statistically insignificant given his longest streaks are just two games in either direction, showing consistent volatility rather than predictable patterns. Robinson's role as a floor-spacer means his scoring is heavily matchup and game-script dependent, making situational factors more important than recent trends. The lack of split data limits our ability to identify optimal betting spots, but the positive over ROI suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to Robinson's upside potential in favorable matchups. With no clear regression signals and balanced recent form, this trend appears sustainable in the short term.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on overs despite a neutral average differential indicates Robinson's ceiling games are undervalued by the market. Target overs when Miami faces pace-up spots or defensively vulnerable opponents where Robinson's three-point volume can spike. The main risk is his floor games in tough defensive matchups, but the positive return profile favors selective over betting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 10.5 | 4.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-19 | OPP | 12.5 | 14.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 11.5 | 14.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-01 | OPP | 12.5 | 8.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 9.5 | 21.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 11.5 | 16.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-02 | OPP | 12.5 | 6.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-20 | OPP | 9.5 | 13.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 10.5 | 13.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 10.5 | 2.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Duncan Robinson's Points prop record last 10 games?
Duncan Robinson has gone over his points prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate) with a 6-4-0 record. His average of 11.1 points exactly matches the typical 11.1 line, creating a perfectly balanced differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Duncan Robinson Points last 10 games?
Lean over on Duncan Robinson's points props. The 14.6% ROI on overs despite neutral averages indicates the market undervalues his ceiling games. Target favorable matchups with pace or defensive vulnerabilities for optimal value.
What's Duncan Robinson's average Points last 10 games?
Duncan Robinson is averaging exactly 11.1 points over his last 10 games, matching the typical 11.1 line for a neutral differential. This balance masks profitable variance, with overs generating 14.6% ROI when they hit.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Robinson's overs in pace-up spots against defensively vulnerable teams where his three-point volume can spike. Avoid unders given the negative ROI, and target games where Miami projects for higher offensive output.