Duncan Robinson's assists prop on one day rest presents a clear under opportunity with just 37.5% overs across 16 games. Despite averaging 2.81 assists versus a 2.75 line, the under delivers 19.3% ROI while overs lose 28.4%. The data strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
Robinson's assists trend on one day rest reveals a fascinating disconnect between raw production and betting value. While his 2.81 average slightly exceeds the typical 2.75 line, this modest edge masks significant volatility that favors under bettors. The 6-10 over/under record tells the real story - Robinson consistently falls short of inflated market expectations. His role as a movement shooter limits natural assist opportunities, and the one-day rest scenario appears to amplify this constraint. The Heat's offensive system often runs through Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro in these spots, relegating Robinson to catch-and-shoot situations rather than playmaking roles. The longest under streak of five games suggests books struggle to properly adjust his lines downward, creating recurring value. Most tellingly, the 28.4% ROI loss on overs indicates the market consistently overrates his facilitating ability in this rest pattern. Robinson's assists production becomes even more inconsistent when Miami faces defensive-minded opponents who can limit his driving lanes and force him into purely perimeter roles.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 19.3% ROI on unders combined with a 62.5% hit rate creates legitimate value despite the small sample size. Robinson's role limitations become more pronounced on one day rest when Miami's offense relies heavily on primary ball handlers. The main risk is his occasional burst games when opponents overplay his shooting, but the trend strongly supports betting under his assists total in this rest scenario.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Duncan Robinson's Assists prop record 1 day rest?
Duncan Robinson goes 6-10 on assists overs with one day rest, hitting just 37.5% of the time. This translates to a devastating -28.4% ROI for over bettors across 16 tracked games dating back to November 2023.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Duncan Robinson Assists 1 day rest?
Bet the under on Robinson's assists with one day rest. The 62.5% under rate generates 19.3% ROI, while his limited playmaking role becomes more pronounced when Miami relies on primary ball handlers in this rest pattern.
What's Duncan Robinson's average Assists 1 day rest?
Robinson averages 2.81 assists on one day rest compared to his typical 2.75 line, creating a modest +0.06 differential. However, this small edge masks significant volatility that consistently favors under bettors despite the positive average.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Robinson's assists unders specifically on one day rest when Miami faces defensive teams that limit driving lanes. Avoid when he's listed as questionable or when the Heat are missing primary ball handlers like Butler or Herro.