Duncan Robinson's assists have cratered over his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time while averaging 2.1 assists against a 2.7 line. The -0.6 differential and brutal -42.7% ROI on overs creates compelling value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Robinson's playmaking has fundamentally shifted as Miami has relegated him to a pure spot-up role. The 2.1 assist average represents a significant departure from his earlier-season involvement, suggesting the Heat have streamlined his responsibilities to focus exclusively on three-point shooting. This role compression makes sense given Miami's ball-dominant guards like Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier commanding primary creation duties. The 30% over rate across 10 games isn't a small sample fluke—it reflects a deliberate tactical adjustment where Robinson rarely touches the ball outside of catch-and-shoot situations. His longest under streak of four games demonstrates the consistency of this reduced playmaking role. The -0.6 differential between his actual output and the betting line suggests books haven't fully adjusted to this tactical shift, creating systematic value on unders. Robinson's assist opportunities are now entirely dependent on defensive rotations creating drive-and-kick scenarios, rather than any designed playmaking sets. This limitation makes his assist props highly predictable, as his ceiling is capped by Miami's offensive structure that prioritizes him as a floor-spacer rather than a facilitator.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Robinson's systematic role reduction to pure shooter creates consistent value on assist unders, with books slow to adjust the 2.7 line downward. Target this prop when Miami faces elite perimeter defenses that limit drive-and-kick opportunities. Primary risk is garbage-time playmaking in blowouts inflating his numbers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Duncan Robinson's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Duncan Robinson has gone over his assists prop just 3 times in his last 10 games, posting a 30% over rate with a 3-7-0 record against the line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Duncan Robinson Assists last 10 games?
Bet under on Robinson's assists. His 2.1 average is 0.6 assists below the typical 2.7 line, creating systematic value with a +33.6% ROI on unders.
What's Duncan Robinson's average Assists last 10 games?
Robinson is averaging 2.1 assists over his last 10 games, which is 0.6 assists below the standard 2.7 line, representing a significant 22% shortfall from expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Robinson assist unders when Miami faces strong perimeter defenses that limit drive-and-kick opportunities, as his playmaking depends entirely on defensive breakdowns creating assist chances.