Draymond Green's three-pointers made prop shows a dominant home trend, hitting the over in 11 of 16 games (68.8%) with a +31.2% ROI. Green averages 1.0 threes at home against typical 0.5 lines, creating consistent value. This represents a strong lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Draymond Green's three-point shooting transforms at Chase Center, where the veteran forward embraces a more aggressive offensive role. The 68.8% over rate isn't coincidental—Green benefits from familiar shooting backgrounds, consistent crowd energy, and the Warriors' enhanced ball movement in their home environment. His 1.0 average against 0.5 lines creates a mathematical edge that books haven't adequately adjusted for. The trend spans five months of data, suggesting genuine environmental factors rather than small-sample noise. Green's willingness to shoot from deep increases at home, likely due to comfort with sight lines and rhythm. The Warriors' pace tends to be slightly higher at Chase Center, creating more possessions and three-point opportunities. While Green isn't a volume shooter, his home confidence manifests in taking and making the open looks that Golden State's system generates. The 31.2% ROI indicates significant market inefficiency, as books appear to price Green's three-point props based on his overall shooting rather than the clear home/road split. The eight-game over streak demonstrates the trend's persistence, though the recent single under suggests some natural variance. With Green's role as a facilitator-first player, his three-point attempts often come from rhythm rather than design, making home court comfort crucial for his shooting confidence.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Green's home three-point shooting shows genuine environmental advantages that create consistent value against standard 0.5 lines. The 68.8% hit rate and positive ROI indicate market inefficiency. Primary risk is Green's facilitator-first mentality potentially limiting attempts in blowout scenarios, but the home comfort factor has proven remarkably persistent across a meaningful sample size.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Draymond Green's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Draymond Green's three-pointers made prop has hit the over in 11 of 16 home games (68.8%) with an impressive +31.2% ROI. He's averaging 1.0 made threes per home game against typical 0.5 lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Draymond Green 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet the over on Draymond Green's three-pointers made at home games. The 68.8% over rate and +0.5 differential above the line create consistent value, especially on 0.5 props where one make wins.
What's Draymond Green's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Draymond Green averages 1.0 three-pointers made in home games, which is double the typical 0.5 line set by sportsbooks. This +0.5 differential has created significant value for over bettors throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Draymond Green's three-pointers made overs in home games at Chase Center, particularly on 0.5 lines where his 68.8% over rate provides maximum edge. Avoid in potential blowouts where his minutes might be limited.