Draymond Green's assists prop on the road presents a clear under opportunity with a 54.5% hit rate and +4.1% ROI. His 5.95 average sits just 0.1 assists below the typical 6.0 line, creating consistent value on unders away from Chase Center.
Expert Analysis
The road struggles for Green's playmaking stem from Golden State's altered offensive rhythm away from home. The Warriors average 2.3 fewer assists per game on the road this season, reflecting the team's diminished ball movement in hostile environments. Green's role as the primary facilitator suffers most, as his court vision and passing lanes get disrupted by increased defensive pressure and crowd noise affecting communication. The 5.95 road average represents a meaningful 0.8-assist drop from his home splits, suggesting this isn't random variance but a systematic issue. Golden State's pace also slows on the road, reducing total possessions and Green's opportunities to accumulate assists. The -13.2% ROI on overs indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to this road disadvantage, consistently setting lines that favor Green's overall season averages rather than his location-specific performance. With 22 games providing solid sample size reliability, this trend shows the persistence expected from environmental factors rather than the volatility of shooting-dependent props.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 54.5% under hit rate and positive ROI create legitimate value, especially when the line sits at 6.0 or higher. Target games against defensively disciplined teams that limit fast-break opportunities where Green typically racks up easy assists. The main risk is Golden State's pace-up games where increased possessions could overcome the road disadvantage, but the underlying factors suggest this edge remains exploitable.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 5.5 | 10.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 5.5 | 11.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 1.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-15 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Draymond Green's Assists prop record away games?
Draymond Green has gone under his assists prop in 12 of 22 away games (54.5% under rate) with a record of 10-12-0 over/under. His road performance shows consistent value on the under side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Draymond Green Assists away games?
Lean under on Draymond Green's assists props in away games. The 54.5% under hit rate and +4.1% ROI provide legitimate value, especially when lines are set at 6.0 or higher than his 5.95 road average.
What's Draymond Green's average Assists away games?
Draymond Green averages 5.95 assists in away games, sitting 0.1 assists below the typical 6.0 line. This small but consistent gap creates the foundation for profitable under betting with proper line shopping.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Draymond Green under assists when Golden State plays defensively disciplined road opponents who limit transition opportunities. Avoid pace-up games where increased possessions could overcome his typical road struggles with ball movement.