Dorian Finney-Smith's three-pointers made prop shows clear under value in home games, hitting just 42.1% overs (8-11-0 record) while delivering positive ROI on unders (+10.5%). Despite averaging 1.79 makes versus a 1.66 line, the under trend generates consistent profit. Lean under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Finney-Smith's home three-point props present a compelling case study in market inefficiency. While his 1.79 average suggests he should clear the typical 1.66 line, the 42.1% over rate tells a different story about execution versus expectation. The positive under ROI (+10.5%) contrasts sharply with the losing over proposition (-19.6%), indicating the market consistently overvalues his home shooting. This pattern likely stems from Brooklyn's pace and offensive philosophy at Barclays Center, where Finney-Smith may see fewer quality looks or face different defensive schemes. The current three-game under streak aligns with his historical tendency toward streaky shooting, particularly in familiar surroundings where defensive adjustments become more predictable. Home court advantage typically benefits shooters through routine and comfort, but Finney-Smith's data suggests the opposite effect. The 19-game sample provides sufficient reliability, spanning multiple months and various opponent types. Without recent form data to suggest a dramatic shift in role or usage, this trend appears sustainable. The key concern is potential regression to the mean, as his actual average does exceed the typical line, but the consistent profitability of unders suggests structural factors beyond simple variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The combination of 58% under success rate and positive ROI creates a sustainable edge despite Finney-Smith averaging above the line. Target games where Brooklyn faces strong perimeter defenses or when the line sits at 1.5 or higher. The main risk is role expansion if Brooklyn trades away perimeter threats, potentially increasing his shot volume and clearing rate.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dorian Finney-Smith's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Finney-Smith's three-pointers made prop record in home games stands at 8-11-0, hitting overs just 42.1% of the time across 19 games. This translates to unders cashing 57.9% of the time, well above the 52.4% needed for profitability at standard odds.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dorian Finney-Smith 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet under on Finney-Smith's three-pointers made in home games. The 58% under success rate and +10.5% ROI provide a clear edge, while overs show negative value at -19.6% ROI despite his 1.79 average exceeding typical lines.
What's Dorian Finney-Smith's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Finney-Smith averages 1.79 three-pointers made in home games, which sits 0.13 makes above the standard 1.66 line. However, this apparent edge for overs is misleading, as he fails to cover 58% of the time in actual game situations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Finney-Smith three-point unders when lines are set at 1.5 or higher, especially against strong perimeter defenses. Home games provide the best edge with 58% under success, particularly during his streaky cold periods like the current three-game under run.