Domantas Sabonis has hit the under on assists in 70% of his last 10 games, averaging just 5.3 assists against a 7.2 line for a brutal -1.9 differential. The under trend shows remarkable consistency with +33.6% ROI, making this a clear fade spot.
Expert Analysis
Sabonis's assist numbers have cratered over this 10-game stretch, and the underlying factors suggest this isn't just variance. The Kings' offensive system has shifted dramatically, with De'Aaron Fox handling more primary playmaking duties while Sabonis operates increasingly as a roll man and post scorer rather than the hub facilitator he was earlier in his career. His 5.3 assist average represents a significant departure from his established role, indicating either a tactical adjustment or reduced opportunities in the half-court offense. The consistency of this trend is striking—seven unders in 10 games with a current three-game under streak suggests this isn't random fluctuation but a fundamental change in usage patterns. Sacramento's pace and offensive philosophy appear to be limiting Sabonis's assist opportunities, particularly in crunch time when Fox dominates the ball. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't fully adjusted to this new reality. Until we see evidence of the Kings reverting to more Sabonis-centric offense or significant injuries to primary ball-handlers, this trend has strong persistence potential.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 70% under rate combined with a massive -1.9 differential to the line creates exceptional value on the under side. Sabonis's role has fundamentally shifted within Sacramento's offense, and the market hasn't caught up to this reality. Target this under in games where Fox is healthy and the Kings aren't in obvious blowout situations that could inflate garbage-time assists.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 5.5 | 0.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 0.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 8.5 | 5.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 8.5 | 7.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Domantas Sabonis's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Sabonis has gone under his assists prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70% under rate) with a 3-7-0 over/under record. He's averaging 5.3 assists against a typical 7.2 line, creating a significant -1.9 differential that heavily favors under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Domantas Sabonis Assists last 10 games?
Bet the under on Sabonis assists props. The 70% under rate and -1.9 differential to the line create exceptional value, especially with his role shift limiting playmaking opportunities. The under has generated +33.6% ROI while overs lose -42.7%.
What's Domantas Sabonis's average Assists last 10 games?
Sabonis is averaging 5.3 assists over his last 10 games compared to a typical 7.2 line, creating a massive -1.9 differential. This represents a significant decline from his usual playmaking production and suggests a fundamental shift in his offensive role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sabonis assists unders when De'Aaron Fox is healthy and handling primary playmaking duties. Avoid in potential blowout games where garbage time could inflate his numbers, and focus on competitive games where Sacramento runs their standard offensive sets.