Dillon Brooks has quietly delivered value on three-pointers made props at home, hitting overs at a 53.1% clip (17-15-0) while averaging 1.66 makes against a typical 1.5 line. The modest +0.2 differential and positive ROI suggest sustainable edge rather than variance-driven results.
Expert Analysis
Brooks's home three-point production reflects the comfort and rhythm that comes with familiar surroundings. The 53.1% over rate across 32 games represents meaningful sample size, while the +0.2 differential above the standard 1.5 line indicates consistent market inefficiency. What makes this trend compelling is its sustainability - Brooks isn't relying on hot shooting streaks but rather steady volume and decent conversion. His role in Houston's offense provides consistent looks from beyond the arc, particularly at home where the Rockets' pace and spacing tend to create more open opportunities. The modest ROI numbers (+1.4% over, -10.5% under) actually strengthen the case, suggesting this isn't a volatile trend prone to dramatic swings. Brooks's three-point attempts remain relatively stable game-to-game, reducing the risk of complete duds that plague volume-dependent props. The current three-game over streak aligns with the broader pattern rather than representing dangerous positive regression territory. Most importantly, the market hasn't fully adjusted to Brooks's home three-point consistency, creating ongoing value for sharp bettors who recognize that his 1.66 average at home consistently challenges the standard 1.5 line pricing.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Brooks's 53.1% home over rate and +0.2 line differential create sustainable value, especially when the line sits at 1.5. The trend shows consistency rather than hot-streak variance, making it reliable for regular betting. Primary risk is potential line movement if the market catches up to his home three-point reliability.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dillon Brooks's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Brooks has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 17 of 32 home games (53.1%), with 15 unders and no pushes. This 53.1% over rate provides a meaningful edge against typical -110 pricing on both sides.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dillon Brooks 3-Pointers Made home games?
Lean over on Brooks's three-pointers made props at home, especially when the line is set at 1.5. His 1.66 home average and 53.1% over rate create consistent value, though bet selectively when line movement is minimal.
What's Dillon Brooks's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Brooks averages 1.66 three-pointers made in home games, which is 0.2 makes above the standard 1.5 line. This differential represents genuine value, as he consistently outperforms the market expectation by a meaningful margin.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Brooks's three-point props when playing at home with the line set at 1.5. Avoid when the line moves to 1.5 with heavy juice or 2.5, as the value disappears and regression risk increases significantly.