Dillon Brooks has hit steals overs in exactly half his last 10 games (5-5-0) while averaging 1.0 steals against a 0.5 line. The +0.5 differential suggests consistent value, but flat ROI indicates books have adjusted. Lean over based on the favorable average differential.
Expert Analysis
Dillon Brooks's steals production over his last 10 games presents a fascinating case study in market efficiency versus underlying value. His 1.0 steal average against a 0.5 line creates a substantial +0.5 differential that should theoretically drive consistent profits, yet the -4.5% ROI on both sides suggests sportsbooks have found the sweet spot in their pricing. The 50% hit rate on overs indicates Brooks is operating right at the line's breakeven point, making this a coin flip proposition at current odds. What's particularly intriguing is the streak pattern showing volatility—his longest over streak reached just 2 games while under streaks extended to 3, suggesting his defensive playmaking comes in clusters rather than steady production. This volatility actually works in bettors' favor when targeting overs, as Brooks appears capable of multi-steal performances that can quickly surpass the low 0.5 threshold. The fact that he's averaging double the line requirement indicates the books may be undervaluing his defensive impact, possibly focusing too heavily on his offensive reputation. However, the flat ROI serves as a warning that this edge may be narrowing as the market adjusts to his consistent steal production.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +0.5 average differential provides genuine mathematical edge despite the flat ROI, suggesting books haven't fully caught up to Brooks's defensive consistency. Target games where Houston faces uptempo opponents or teams prone to turnovers, as Brooks's aggressive defensive style should create additional steal opportunities. Main risk is the market's apparent efficiency at current pricing levels.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dillon Brooks's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Brooks has gone 5-5-0 on steals overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of his overs. This represents a perfectly balanced record with no pushes, indicating tight market pricing around his typical production levels.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dillon Brooks Steals last 10 games?
Lean over on Brooks's steals props. His 1.0 average against a 0.5 line provides mathematical edge, and his aggressive defensive style creates upside potential. However, only bet when finding favorable odds due to efficient market pricing.
What's Dillon Brooks's average Steals last 10 games?
Brooks averages 1.0 steals over his last 10 games compared to the typical 0.5 line. This +0.5 differential represents a 100% edge over the betting threshold, though market efficiency has neutralized ROI profits recently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Brooks steals overs against high-pace teams or turnover-prone opponents where his aggressive defense can capitalize. Avoid back-to-back games or when Houston faces methodical offenses that limit steal opportunities through careful ball handling.