Dillon Brooks has been a consistent under performer on his points props, hitting just 40% of overs with a devastating -23.6% ROI for over bettors. The Houston guard is averaging 11.9 points against a 10.7 line, but the 4-6-0 record tells the real story. The under shows clear value.
Expert Analysis
Brooks's points prop struggles stem from Houston's evolving offensive hierarchy and his defensive-first role. While averaging 11.9 points suggests line value, the 4-6-0 over record reveals inconsistent scoring bursts followed by quiet stretches. The Rockets have increasingly relied on their core scorers, pushing Brooks into a complementary role where his defensive intensity often overshadows offensive production. His longest under streak of four games demonstrates how quickly he can disappear offensively when Houston's system doesn't require his scoring. The +1.2 differential between average and line creates a misleading impression—Brooks tends to either exceed expectations significantly or fall well short, with the latter happening 60% of the time. His streaky nature makes him particularly vulnerable to under bets when Houston faces quality opponents that can neutralize his transition opportunities. The recent pattern shows Brooks settling into a role where consistent double-digit scoring isn't guaranteed, despite occasional explosive performances that inflate his average.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under rate combined with positive ROI for under bettors creates a sustainable edge despite the favorable point differential. Brooks's defensive-first mentality and Houston's offensive depth limit his consistent scoring opportunities. Target under bets when the Rockets face structured defenses that can limit transition scoring, as Brooks struggles most in half-court sets where his role becomes more limited.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 11.5 | 8.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 10.5 | 15.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 9.5 | 29.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 10.5 | 18.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 9.5 | 8.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 9.5 | 5.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 10.5 | 0.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 12.5 | 5.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 10.5 | 20.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 12.5 | 11.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Points Prop Lines
Compare Dillon Brooks props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dillon Brooks's Points prop record last 10 games?
Dillon Brooks has gone 4-6-0 on points props over his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of overs. Under bettors have enjoyed a +14.6% ROI while over bettors suffered a brutal -23.6% loss rate during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dillon Brooks Points last 10 games?
Bet the under on Dillon Brooks points props. The 60% under rate and positive ROI for under bets creates a clear edge despite his 11.9 point average exceeding the typical 10.7 line by 1.2 points.
What's Dillon Brooks's average Points last 10 games?
Dillon Brooks is averaging 11.9 points over his last 10 games, which sits 1.2 points above his typical line of 10.7. However, this average is misleading given his 4-6-0 over/under record during this period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dillon Brooks under bets when Houston faces quality defensive teams that can limit transition opportunities. His scoring becomes most inconsistent in structured half-court games where his defensive role takes priority over offensive production.