Devin Booker's points production on one day rest presents a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 39.0% of overs across 41 games with a -0.8 point differential from the average line. The under delivers +16.4% ROI while overs hemorrhage -25.5%, creating a clear lean under.
Expert Analysis
Devin Booker's struggles on one day rest reveal the hidden cost of Phoenix's compressed scheduling. The 39.0% over rate masks a deeper issue: Booker consistently underperforms his pricing by nearly a full point per game. This isn't random variance across 41 games—it's a systematic pattern where the market hasn't properly adjusted to his reduced efficiency on minimal rest. The -25.5% ROI on overs tells the story of a betting public that continues to back Booker's star power without considering his physical limitations. Professional bettors have capitalized on the under, generating +16.4% returns by recognizing that elite scorers often see their shooting percentages and shot selection deteriorate when playing every other night. Booker's reliance on mid-range jumpers and contested shots makes him particularly vulnerable to fatigue, as these require precise muscle memory that suffers with inadequate recovery. The market's persistent overvaluation creates sustainable value on the under, especially when considering that Phoenix's pace often slows in back-to-back situations as they try to manage energy expenditure.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 39.0% over rate and +16.4% under ROI across 41 games represents genuine market inefficiency rather than small sample noise. Target this spot when Booker's line sits at or above his season average, as the -0.8 differential suggests consistent underperformance. Primary risk is a blowout game where garbage time inflates his numbers, but the data supports systematic value on the under.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-30 | OPP | 24.5 | 28.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 25.5 | 24.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-25 | OPP | 25.5 | 28.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 28.5 | 21.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-15 | OPP | 28.5 | 12.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 25.5 | 23.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 26.5 | 21.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 26.5 | 12.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 26.5 | 25.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 27.5 | 13.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 27.5 | 40.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 25.5 | 14.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 26.5 | 17.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 26.5 | 36.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 25.5 | 32.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Devin Booker's Points prop record 1 day rest?
Devin Booker goes 16-25 over/under on points props with one day rest, hitting just 39.0% of overs across 41 games. He averages 26.41 points against a typical line of 27.21, creating a -0.8 point differential that favors under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Devin Booker Points 1 day rest?
Bet under on Devin Booker's points with one day rest. The 39.0% over rate and +16.4% under ROI across 41 games shows clear market inefficiency. Target lines at or above his season average for maximum value on the under.
What's Devin Booker's average Points 1 day rest?
Devin Booker averages 26.41 points on one day rest, which is 0.8 points below his typical line of 27.21. This consistent underperformance creates systematic value for under bettors across a substantial 41-game sample size.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Devin Booker under props when he's playing on one day rest and the line is set at or above his season average. Avoid in potential blowout spots where garbage time could inflate his scoring numbers.