Derrick White's steals prop shows a modest 53.7% over rate (22-19) with a positive 0.24 unit differential above the typical 0.74 line. The +2.4% over ROI suggests slight value, but the edge is narrow enough to require selective timing rather than blind backing.
Expert Analysis
Derrick White's steal production reflects his evolution into a more aggressive perimeter defender in Boston's switching scheme. His 0.98 average against a 0.74 line represents genuine skill rather than variance, as White has increased his steal rate significantly since joining the Celtics. The 53.7% over rate across 41 games demonstrates consistency in exceeding modest market expectations. White's defensive positioning in Boston's system creates more deflection opportunities than his previous roles, particularly when guarding opposing point guards who handle the ball frequently. The narrow +2.4% over ROI indicates the market has adjusted somewhat to his improved steal production, but hasn't fully caught up to his current defensive role. The recent under streak of one game means little in this context, as steals are inherently volatile on a game-to-game basis. White's steal production correlates strongly with pace and opponent turnover rate, making matchup selection crucial. The lack of significant regression over 41 games suggests this isn't a hot streak but a legitimate skill improvement in his defensive approach.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. White's consistent production above the line (0.98 vs 0.74) reflects his expanded defensive role in Boston rather than unsustainable variance. The narrow ROI edge requires selective betting on favorable matchups against turnover-prone opponents or in projected high-pace games. Risk lies in the market's gradual adjustment to his improved steal rate.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derrick White's Steals prop record all games?
Derrick White has gone over his steals prop 22 times and under 19 times in 41 games, producing a 53.7% over rate. His average of 0.98 steals consistently beats the typical 0.74 line by 0.24 units.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derrick White Steals all games?
Lean over on White's steals props, but be selective with matchups. His 0.98 average significantly exceeds the 0.74 line, but the narrow +2.4% ROI means you need favorable game conditions to maximize value.
What's Derrick White's average Steals all games?
White averages 0.98 steals per game compared to the typical 0.74 line, creating a positive 0.24 differential. This 32% edge above the line reflects his improved defensive role with Boston rather than temporary variance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target games against turnover-prone opponents or projected high-pace matchups where White will see more possessions. His steal production correlates with opponent ball-handling frequency and overall game tempo, making matchup selection crucial for maximizing value.