Dereck Lively II shows a perfectly balanced 5-5-0 record on his points prop over his last 10 games, with his 9.4 scoring average sitting 1.3 points above the typical 8.1 line. Despite the positive differential, both over and under bets have yielded identical -4.5% ROI, suggesting market efficiency has caught up to his elevated production.
Expert Analysis
The Dallas center's scoring pattern reveals a tale of market adjustment rather than exploitable inefficiency. Lively II's 9.4 points per game significantly exceeds his usual line of 8.1, indicating the young big man has elevated his offensive role during this stretch. However, the perfectly even 5-5 split and negative ROI on both sides tells us oddsmakers have been pricing his props accurately despite the higher scoring average. The current three-game under streak matches his longest over streak from earlier in the sample, demonstrating the volatility inherent in center scoring props. Lively II's points production heavily depends on game flow, foul trouble to teammates like Daniel Gafford, and Dallas's pace of play. His role as a rim-running, putback specialist means his scoring ceiling remains capped unless he develops more diverse offensive skills. The lack of split data makes it difficult to identify specific advantageous spots, but his scoring typically correlates with increased minutes when the Mavericks need size or when games become more physical. Without clear situational edges or meaningful trends beyond the recent under streak, this prop appears fairly priced by the market.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. While Lively II's 1.3-point positive differential suggests value, the perfectly balanced 5-5 record and identical negative ROI on both sides indicate efficient market pricing. The current three-game under streak creates recency bias but lacks statistical significance in a 10-game sample. Without situational data to identify specific advantages, this prop offers no clear edge despite the appealing scoring average.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 0.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 8.5 | 20.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-03 | OPP | 9.5 | 0.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 8.5 | 20.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-14 | OPP | 9.5 | 15.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 7.5 | 16.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dereck Lively II's Points prop record last 10 games?
Dereck Lively II has gone 5-5-0 on his points prop over his last 10 games, hitting the over exactly 50% of the time. He's currently on a three-game under streak, which matches his longest over streak from earlier in this sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dereck Lively II Points last 10 games?
Pass on Lively II's points props. Despite his 9.4 scoring average exceeding the typical 8.1 line, both overs and unders have produced identical -4.5% ROI, indicating the market has efficiently priced his elevated production during this stretch.
What's Dereck Lively II's average Points last 10 games?
Lively II has averaged 9.4 points over his last 10 games, running 1.3 points above the typical line of 8.1. This positive differential initially appears favorable, but the perfectly even 5-5 record shows markets have adjusted accordingly.
How reliable is this trend?
Without situational splits available, target Lively II points props when Dallas faces pace-up spots or when fellow big men are in foul trouble. His rim-running style benefits from increased possessions and expanded minutes in physical matchups.