Deni Avdija's three-point props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% of overs across his last 10 games while averaging 1.0 makes against a 1.5 line. Currently riding a four-game under streak, the data strongly favors continued under performance.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of Avdija's three-point struggles during this stretch. Averaging exactly 1.0 makes per game against a consistent 1.5 line creates a meaningful 0.5 shot deficit that has translated into consistent under value. The 30% over rate indicates this isn't random variance but a fundamental disconnect between his actual three-point production and market expectations. Avdija's role as a versatile forward often prioritizes playmaking and interior work over perimeter shooting, which explains the persistent underperformance. The four-game under streak suggests either a shooting slump or tactical adjustment limiting his three-point opportunities. While regression toward his seasonal average is always possible, the sample size and consistency of underperformance indicate the market may be overvaluing his three-point output. The lack of split data prevents deeper situational analysis, but the raw numbers show a player consistently falling short of a modest 1.5 make expectation. This trend appears sustainable given Avdija's secondary role in Washington's offense and his natural tendency toward all-around production rather than specialized shooting.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% under hit rate and consistent 0.5 shot deficit versus the line creates clear value, especially during this four-game under streak. Target this prop when Avdija faces strong perimeter defenses or in games where Washington emphasizes interior scoring. The main risk is natural shooting regression, but his role and recent form support continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Deni Avdija's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Avdija has hit over 1.5 three-pointers made in just 3 of his last 10 games (30%), going under in 7 contests. He's currently on a four-game under streak, his longest of this sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Deni Avdija 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the under. Avdija is averaging exactly 1.0 makes against a 1.5 line with a 70% under hit rate and +33.6% ROI. The four-game under streak reinforces this edge.
What's Deni Avdija's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Avdija is averaging 1.0 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, sitting 0.5 shots below the typical 1.5 line. This consistent deficit has created reliable under value for bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Avdija under props against strong perimeter defenses or when Washington emphasizes interior scoring. His secondary role and recent four-game under streak suggest continued opportunities for under value.