Deni Avdija shows a modest edge on steals props with one day of rest, hitting over 54.3% of the time across 35 games with a +0.18 average differential. The 3.6% positive ROI on overs suggests legitimate value, making this a lean over situation when the line sits at his typical 0.59 mark.
Expert Analysis
Avdija's steals production gets a meaningful boost with standard rest, averaging 0.77 steals compared to his typical 0.59 line. This 30% increase isn't coincidental—forwards often see improved defensive activity when they're not battling fatigue from back-to-back games. The sample size of 35 games provides solid confidence, and the consistent 54.3% over rate suggests this isn't driven by a few outlier performances. What makes this trend particularly appealing is the moderate but persistent edge rather than boom-or-bust volatility. Avdija's role as a versatile defender who guards multiple positions means he gets opportunities for steals in various matchups. The key concern is that steals props are inherently volatile, and even a player performing above expectation can easily go under due to game flow or opponent ball security. However, the positive ROI on overs indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to this rest advantage. The fact that he's currently on a one-game under streak after longer streaks in both directions suggests normal variance rather than a trend shift.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Avdija's 0.77 average with one day rest creates genuine value against the typical 0.59 line, supported by a 54.3% hit rate and positive ROI. The edge is most pronounced when facing teams that turn the ball over frequently or play at faster pace. Main risk is the inherent volatility of steals props, where even well-positioned players can easily fall short due to game script.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Deni Avdija's Steals prop record 1 day rest?
Avdija's steals prop record with one day rest is 19-16-0 over/under (54.3% overs) across 35 games from November 2023 to April 2024, showing a consistent but modest edge on the over.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Deni Avdija Steals 1 day rest?
Lean over on Avdija's steals props with one day rest. His 0.77 average significantly exceeds typical lines around 0.59, with a 54.3% hit rate and positive ROI supporting the edge.
What's Deni Avdija's average Steals 1 day rest?
Avdija averages 0.77 steals with one day of rest compared to his typical 0.59 line, creating a +0.18 differential that represents approximately 30% above market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Avdija steals overs with one day rest against turnover-prone teams or in faster-paced games where defensive opportunities increase. Avoid on back-to-backs when his activity typically decreases.