Deni Avdija has been a consistent over performer on his points prop, hitting the over in 7 of his last 10 games (70.0%) while averaging 18.1 points against a 17.0 line. The +1.1 differential and 33.6% ROI on overs signals legitimate value in backing Avdija's scoring output.
Expert Analysis
Deni Avdija's scoring surge represents more than random variance—it reflects his expanded role in Washington's rebuilding phase. The 18.1 points per game average over this 10-game stretch shows Avdija has found consistent offensive rhythm, exceeding his season-long expectations by a full point per game. The 70% over rate isn't just impressive; it's sustainable given the Wizards' increased reliance on Avdija as a primary offensive option. His versatility allows him to score in multiple ways—driving to the basket, hitting spot-up threes, and capitalizing on mismatches in the post. The +33.6% ROI on overs demonstrates sharp money has recognized this trend, yet books haven't fully adjusted lines to reflect his elevated production. The sample size of 10 games provides meaningful data without being so extensive that regression becomes inevitable. Avdija's current streak of one over suggests he's due for continued success, especially considering his longest over streak reached four games during this period. The absence of a prolonged under streak (longest was just one game) indicates remarkable consistency in exceeding expectations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Avdija's 70% over rate and +1.1 scoring differential reflect genuine role expansion rather than unsustainable hot shooting. The ideal spot comes when lines remain at 17.0 or lower, as books haven't fully caught up to his increased usage. Main risk is potential rest days or blowout games limiting his minutes, but Washington's competitive games should provide ample scoring opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 17.5 | 22.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 18.5 | 7.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 17.5 | 23.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 16.5 | 15.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 17.5 | 18.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 17.5 | 17.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 17.5 | 22.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 16.5 | 17.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 15.5 | 24.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 15.5 | 16.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Deni Avdija's Points prop record last 10 games?
Deni Avdija has hit the over on his points prop in 7 of his last 10 games, posting a 70.0% over rate. He's averaging 18.1 points per game during this stretch, consistently exceeding oddsmakers' expectations with impressive regularity.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Deni Avdija Points last 10 games?
Lean over on Deni Avdija's points props. His 70% over rate and +1.1 scoring differential indicate books haven't adjusted to his expanded role. The 33.6% ROI on overs shows legitimate value remains in backing his scoring output.
What's Deni Avdija's average Points last 10 games?
Deni Avdija is averaging 18.1 points over his last 10 games compared to a typical line of 17.0. This +1.1 differential represents significant value, showing he's consistently outperforming market expectations by a full point per game.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Deni Avdija overs when lines remain at 17.0 or below, particularly in competitive games where he'll see full minutes. Avoid back-to-back situations or potential blowouts where his playing time might be limited in garbage time.