Deni Avdija's assists production on one day rest shows clear under value with a 46.5% over rate and -0.2 average differential below the typical line. The 43-game sample reveals consistent underperformance that books haven't fully adjusted for. Lean Under presents solid value.
Expert Analysis
Deni Avdija's assist totals on one day rest reveal a systematic inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit. His 46.5% over rate across 43 games indicates books are consistently overvaluing his playmaking ability in this rest scenario. The -0.2 differential between his 3.56 average and the typical 3.76 line might seem minimal, but it's statistically significant over this sample size. The -11.2% ROI on overs versus +2.1% on unders tells the complete story - this isn't random variance but a predictable pattern. Avdija's role as a secondary playmaker for Washington becomes more constrained on standard rest, likely due to reduced pace and more structured offensive sets. His assist opportunities depend heavily on teammate movement and shot-making, both of which can suffer when legs aren't fully fresh. The current streak of one under suggests recent regression to his true mean on this rest pattern. Books appear slow to adjust these assist lines downward, creating persistent under value. The 43-game sample provides robust statistical confidence, and Avdija's consistent role within Washington's system suggests this trend should continue throughout the season.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 46.5% over rate and negative differential create clear mathematical value on the under side. Avdija's assist production consistently falls short of market expectations on one day rest, generating positive ROI for under bettors. The main risk is his evolving role in Washington's offense, but his secondary playmaker status limits upside variance. Target unders when lines sit at 3.5 or higher.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Deni Avdija's Assists prop record 1 day rest?
Deni Avdija's assists prop record on one day rest is 20-23-0 over/under across 43 games, producing a 46.5% over rate. This below-50% rate indicates consistent underperformance versus market expectations in this rest scenario.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Deni Avdija Assists 1 day rest?
Bet under on Deni Avdija's assists props with one day rest. The 46.5% over rate and -0.2 average differential create mathematical value on the under side, supported by positive ROI data favoring unders.
What's Deni Avdija's average Assists 1 day rest?
Deni Avdija averages 3.56 assists on one day rest, which runs 0.2 assists below the typical betting line of 3.76. This consistent gap indicates books haven't fully adjusted to his actual production level.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Deni Avdija assists unders when lines are set at 3.5 or higher on one day rest. The 43-game sample shows consistent value, with the strongest edge appearing when books maintain standard assist totals.