Deni Avdija shows a modest edge toward overs in away assists props, hitting 53.3% over a 30-game sample with a 16-14 record. The 3.6 average slightly exceeds the typical 3.5 line, generating positive ROI on overs. This represents a lean over opportunity rather than a strong edge.
Expert Analysis
Avdija's away assists trend reflects the subtle dynamics of road basketball rather than a dominant statistical edge. The 53.3% over rate across 30 games suggests mild consistency without overwhelming conviction. His 3.6 average in away games creates a thin but meaningful buffer above standard 3.5 lines, though the +0.1 differential indicates books are pricing this reasonably well. The positive 1.8% ROI on overs demonstrates sustainable value, while the -10.9% under ROI warns against fading this trend. Washington's road dynamics likely contribute to Avdija's slightly elevated assist production, possibly through increased pace or defensive adjustments that create more passing opportunities. The streak patterns show moderate volatility with a longest over streak of four games, suggesting this isn't a boom-or-bust proposition. However, the lack of split data limits our ability to identify optimal conditions or concerning matchup types. The trend appears legitimate but not explosive, requiring careful line shopping and situational awareness. Regression risk exists given the modest sample size and thin edge, making this more suitable for smaller unit plays rather than heavy investment.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Avdija's 53.3% over rate and positive ROI create a sustainable edge in away assists props, particularly when lines sit at 3.5 or below. The trend shows consistency without dramatic volatility, making it suitable for steady value extraction. Primary risk involves the thin margin for error and potential line adjustments as books recognize the pattern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Deni Avdija's Assists prop record away games?
Deni Avdija's assists prop record in away games stands at 16-14-0 over/under, hitting overs 53.3% of the time across 30 games from November 2023 to March 2024, generating positive ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Deni Avdija Assists away games?
Lean over on Deni Avdija's assists in away games. The 53.3% over rate with positive 1.8% ROI creates sustainable value, especially at 3.5 lines where his 3.6 average provides a meaningful edge.
What's Deni Avdija's average Assists away games?
Deni Avdija averages 3.6 assists in away games, which sits 0.1 above the typical 3.5 line. This creates a thin but consistent edge for over bettors in road matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Deni Avdija assists overs in away games when lines are set at 3.5 or below. The edge is most pronounced on the road where his playmaking opportunities appear enhanced.