DeMar DeRozan has hit the over in 6 of his last 10 games (60.0% rate) while averaging 22.4 points against a 23.0 line. The +14.6% ROI on overs suggests modest value despite the negative scoring differential. Lean over based on positive trend momentum.
Expert Analysis
DeRozan's 60% over rate masks a more complex scoring pattern that creates subtle betting value. While his 22.4-point average sits 0.6 points below the typical 23.0 line, the positive ROI on overs indicates the market may be slightly overvaluing his floor. The veteran scorer's consistency becomes crucial here—even when falling short of his line, DeRozan rarely craters completely, keeping overs competitive. His recent integration into Sacramento's system shows encouraging signs, with the Kings likely designing more efficient looks for their primary isolation scorer. The modest sample size demands caution, but DeRozan's career-long reliability suggests this trend has staying power. His usage rate and shot selection typically remain stable regardless of game flow, providing the type of predictable volume that makes props profitable. The key concern lies in Sacramento's pace and offensive philosophy potentially capping his ceiling in blowout scenarios. However, close games—where DeRozan historically thrives—should continue providing the clutch scoring opportunities that drive overs. The 1-game current over streak, while short, aligns with his longer-term positive momentum. Market inefficiency appears present, as books may be anchoring too heavily on early-season struggles rather than his recent adaptation to the Kings' system.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. DeRozan's 60% over rate combined with positive ROI suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his improved scoring consistency in Sacramento's system. Target games where the Kings face competitive opponents, as DeRozan's clutch scoring typically elevates in close contests. Main risk is pace-related ceiling in potential blowouts, but his reliable usage makes this a solid value play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 21.5 | 31.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 22.5 | 20.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 20.5 | 21.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 20.5 | 2.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 26.5 | 31.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 25.5 | 13.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 24.5 | 24.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 23.5 | 33.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 22.5 | 25.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 22.5 | 24.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DeMar DeRozan's Points prop record last 10 games?
DeRozan has gone over his points prop in 6 of his last 10 games, posting a 60% over rate with a 6-4-0 record. He's averaging 22.4 points against typical lines around 23.0, creating a -0.6 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DeMar DeRozan Points last 10 games?
Lean over on DeRozan's points props. The 60% over rate with +14.6% ROI suggests value, and his consistent scoring floor keeps overs competitive even when he falls short of the line by small margins.
What's DeMar DeRozan's average Points last 10 games?
DeRozan is averaging 22.4 points over his last 10 games, which sits 0.6 points below the typical 23.0 line. Despite the negative differential, his 60% over rate indicates he's exceeding expectations more often than not.
How reliable is this trend?
Target DeRozan points overs in competitive games where Sacramento faces quality opponents. His clutch scoring elevates in close contests, and avoid potential blowout scenarios where pace could limit his ceiling despite consistent usage.