DeMar DeRozan's points prop presents a perfectly balanced 50% over rate across 28 games, with his 22.79 average sitting just 0.5 points below the typical 23.29 line. The minimal edge and negative ROI on both sides suggest this is an efficient market with little exploitable value.
Expert Analysis
DeRozan's points prop represents one of the most efficiently priced markets in the NBA, with his 14-14 over/under record reflecting near-perfect bookmaker calibration. The veteran scorer's 22.79 average consistently aligns with market expectations, creating a -0.5 differential that's statistically insignificant over this sample size. What makes this trend particularly noteworthy is the absence of exploitable patterns—DeRozan has demonstrated remarkable consistency in his scoring output, neither systematically exceeding nor falling short of oddsmakers' projections. The negative ROI on both sides (-4.5%) confirms that juice is eating into any potential edge. DeRozan's scoring reliability stems from his methodical mid-range game and consistent usage within Sacramento's offense, but this predictability has allowed sportsbooks to price his props with exceptional accuracy. The alternating streaks (longest over: 7, longest under: 8) suggest natural variance rather than sustainable trends. Without meaningful splits data or recent form indicators pointing toward systematic over or under performance, this prop lacks the inefficiencies that create betting opportunities. The market has effectively neutralized DeRozan's scoring prop through precise line-setting.
Betting Verdict
PASS with HIGH confidence. DeRozan's points prop exemplifies an efficiently priced market where the house edge eliminates any meaningful advantage. The perfect 50% hit rate and negative ROI on both sides indicate sportsbooks have accurately captured his scoring range. Without exploitable patterns or market inefficiencies, this prop offers no sustainable edge for bettors seeking profitable opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 21.5 | 31.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 22.5 | 20.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 20.5 | 21.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 20.5 | 2.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 26.5 | 31.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 25.5 | 13.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 24.5 | 24.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 23.5 | 33.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 22.5 | 25.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 22.5 | 24.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 25.5 | 29.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 23.5 | 28.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 24.5 | 30.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 23.5 | 33.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 25.5 | 24.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DeMar DeRozan's Points prop record all games?
DeRozan holds a perfectly balanced 14-14-0 over/under record on his points prop across 28 games this season, representing exactly 50% overs with no pushes, demonstrating remarkable consistency in his scoring output.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DeMar DeRozan Points all games?
Neither over nor under offers a profitable edge. The perfect 50% hit rate and -4.5% ROI on both sides indicate this is an efficiently priced market where the house advantage eliminates betting value.
What's DeMar DeRozan's average Points all games?
DeRozan averages 22.79 points per game against a typical line of 23.29, creating a minimal -0.5 differential that falls well within normal variance and suggests accurate market pricing by sportsbooks.
How reliable is this trend?
There is no optimal time to bet DeRozan's points props. The lack of exploitable splits, consistent performance across all conditions, and efficient market pricing make this prop unprofitable regardless of timing.