Dejounte Murray has hit the over just 40% of the time over his last 10 games, averaging 21.0 points against a 21.8 line for a -0.8 differential. The under has generated a solid 14.6% ROI while overs have lost 23.6%. This points to a clear lean under.
Expert Analysis
Murray's scoring struggles reflect deeper issues with his role in New Orleans' offense. The 21.0 average against a 21.8 line reveals books are still pricing him based on his Atlanta production rather than his current reality as a secondary option behind Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. The 4-6-0 over/under record isn't just bad luck—it's systematic underperformance driven by reduced usage and fewer high-leverage touches. Murray's assist-first mentality has always competed with his scoring, but in New Orleans' crowded backcourt, that tension tilts heavily toward playmaking. The -23.6% ROI on overs suggests sharp money has already identified this inefficiency, while the 14.6% under ROI indicates sustainable value. Most concerning for over bettors is the consistency of the underperformance—Murray isn't alternating good and bad games, he's simply operating at a lower scoring baseline. Without significant injury news to the frontcourt or a dramatic shift in offensive philosophy, this trend has legs. The books appear slow to adjust, creating a window for under value that should persist until the sample forces a line correction.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Murray's 21.0 scoring average against inflated lines creates consistent under value, evidenced by the 14.6% ROI. The ideal spot is when his line sits at 21.5 or higher, particularly in games where Zion and Ingram are both active. The main risk is a blowout game where Murray gets hot from three, but his role limitations make sustained scoring outbursts unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 18.5 | 26.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-27 | OPP | 19.5 | 15.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 18.5 | 17.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 21.5 | 19.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 17.5 | 26.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 22.5 | 14.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 23.5 | 16.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 26.5 | 30.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 24.5 | 19.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 25.5 | 28.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Points Prop Lines
Compare Dejounte Murray props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dejounte Murray's Points prop record last 10 games?
Murray has gone over his points prop in just 4 of his last 10 games (40%), going under 6 times. He's averaging 21.0 points against lines typically set around 21.8, creating a -0.8 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dejounte Murray Points last 10 games?
Bet the under on Murray's points props. His 40% over rate and -0.8 average differential show consistent underperformance, while unders have generated a solid 14.6% ROI compared to -23.6% losses on overs.
What's Dejounte Murray's average Points last 10 games?
Murray is averaging 21.0 points over his last 10 games, which sits 0.8 points below his typical line of 21.8. This gap indicates books are pricing him too high based on his current role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Murray under props when his line is 21.5 or higher, especially when Zion and Ingram are both active. Avoid in potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate his numbers late.