De'Anthony Melton's three-pointers made prop shows clear under value with just 44.4% overs across 18 games. His 2.06 average sits 0.1 below the typical 2.17 line, generating solid +6.1% ROI on unders. The data strongly supports betting under on Melton's three-point props.
Expert Analysis
De'Anthony Melton's three-point shooting presents a compelling under opportunity rooted in role limitations and shot selection inefficiency. His 2.06 average against a 2.17 line reveals books are overvaluing his three-point volume, likely influenced by his reputation as a shooter rather than his actual NBA production. The 44.4% over rate across 18 games isn't just bad luck—it reflects systematic issues with his shot creation in Philadelphia's offense. Melton often operates as the fourth or fifth offensive option, meaning his three-point attempts frequently come from difficult looks late in possessions or forced shots when primary scorers are covered. His recent five-game under streak followed by brief regression suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his reduced role efficiency. The -15.2% ROI on overs indicates recreational bettors are consistently overestimating his three-point production, creating sustainable value on the under. Without significant injury news affecting Philadelphia's backcourt rotation, Melton's three-point props should continue trending under as his role remains limited and shot quality stays inconsistent. The persistence of this trend across nearly 20 games suggests structural rather than variance-based factors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Melton's 2.06 average consistently falls short of typical 2.17 lines, creating mathematical edge reinforced by his limited offensive role. The +6.1% under ROI across 18 games demonstrates sustainable value. Best spots come when lines sit at 2.5 or higher, though standard 2.0-2.5 props still offer slight edge. Main risk involves potential lineup changes or increased usage if Philadelphia's backcourt faces injuries.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is De'Anthony Melton's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
De'Anthony Melton's three-pointers made prop record shows 8 overs, 10 unders, and 0 pushes across 18 games, producing a 44.4% over rate. His average of 2.06 made threes consistently falls below the typical 2.17 line, creating clear under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on De'Anthony Melton 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet under on De'Anthony Melton's three-pointers made props. His 2.06 average sits below typical 2.17 lines, generating +6.1% ROI on unders across 18 games. The 44.4% over rate demonstrates consistent mathematical edge favoring the under.
What's De'Anthony Melton's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
De'Anthony Melton averages 2.06 three-pointers made per game across 18 contests, sitting 0.1 below the typical 2.17 line. This negative differential creates consistent under value, as his actual production falls short of market expectations set by oddsmakers.
How reliable is this trend?
Target De'Anthony Melton three-point unders when lines reach 2.5 or higher for maximum value. Standard 2.0-2.5 props still offer edge given his 2.06 average. Avoid betting when Philadelphia faces significant backcourt injuries that could increase his usage and shot volume.