De'Aaron Fox has been a steals machine over his last 10 games, hitting the over in 7 of 10 contests (70% rate) while averaging 2.4 steals against a typical 1.7 line. The +33.6% ROI on overs reflects a significant market inefficiency that warrants continued backing.
Expert Analysis
Fox's steal surge represents more than statistical noise—it reflects his elevated defensive engagement during Sacramento's playoff push. The 2.4 average against 1.7 lines creates a meaningful 0.7 cushion that suggests sustainable outperformance rather than random variance. Fox's steal production benefits from increased gambling on passing lanes when the Kings play uptempo basketball, which has been their preferred style during this sample period. The 4-game over streak within this span demonstrates consistency rather than boom-bust volatility. What makes this trend particularly compelling is Fox's ability to generate steals through anticipation rather than pure aggression, leading to more sustainable production. The market appears slow to adjust to his heightened defensive activity level, creating persistent value on overs. However, the 42.7% loss rate on unders shows the market isn't completely blind to his elevated play. The key risk lies in potential rest games or blowout scenarios where Fox's minutes get reduced, but his steal rate per minute has remained remarkably consistent throughout this stretch.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Fox's 70% over rate and +0.7 average differential create genuine value that the market hasn't fully recognized. The ideal betting spots come when lines remain at 1.5 or 2.5, particularly in competitive games where Fox plays heavy minutes. The main risk is regression to his season-long averages, but his current defensive engagement suggests this elevated level has staying power through season's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is De'Aaron Fox's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Fox has hit the over in 7 of his last 10 games (70% rate) with a 7-3-0 over/under record. His overs have generated a strong +33.6% ROI while unders have lost -42.7%, showing clear directional value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on De'Aaron Fox Steals last 10 games?
Bet the over on Fox's steals. His 70% over rate and 2.4 average against typical 1.7 lines create consistent value. The market hasn't adjusted to his elevated defensive play during Sacramento's playoff positioning.
What's De'Aaron Fox's average Steals last 10 games?
Fox is averaging 2.4 steals over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 1.7. This +0.7 differential provides substantial cushion and explains his 70% over rate during this stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Fox steal overs in competitive games where he'll play heavy minutes. Lines at 1.5 or 2.5 offer the best value, particularly when Sacramento plays uptempo basketball that creates more steal opportunities.