De'Aaron Fox's steals prop shows exceptional value in away games, hitting the over at a 63.3% clip (19-11-0 record) while averaging 2.27 steals against a 1.63 line. The +0.6 differential and 20.9% ROI make this a clear lean over in road environments.
Expert Analysis
Fox's steals production receives a significant boost in hostile road environments, where increased defensive intensity and pace typically create more turnover opportunities. The 2.27 average against a 1.63 line represents a substantial 39% edge that suggests consistent market undervaluation of his away defensive impact. Road games often feature faster tempos as home teams push pace, while Fox's aggressive ball-hawking style thrives in these uptempo situations where passing lanes open up more frequently. The 63.3% over rate across 30 games provides robust sample size confidence, while the +20.9% ROI demonstrates this isn't just a volume play but a profitable edge. Fox's defensive instincts appear sharper when playing with added focus that road environments demand. The consistency is notable - even during his longest under streak of just 3 games, he quickly bounced back with over runs of 5 games, suggesting the underlying skill advantage remains intact. With sportsbooks seemingly slow to adjust the line despite this clear pattern, the market inefficiency persists. The lack of significant regression over this extended sample indicates Fox's steal rate in away games represents a genuine skill-based edge rather than random variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Fox's 63.3% over rate and +0.6 average differential in away games represents a clear market inefficiency that hasn't been properly corrected. The road environment consistently elevates his defensive aggression and steal opportunities. Primary risk is potential line adjustment as sportsbooks catch up to this trend, but until then, the value remains strong in away spots.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is De'Aaron Fox's Steals prop record away games?
Fox's steals prop has gone over in 19 of 30 away games (63.3% rate) with an 11-game under record. This 19-11-0 mark represents one of the strongest road trends for defensive props this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on De'Aaron Fox Steals away games?
Bet the over on Fox's steals in away games. The 63.3% hit rate and +20.9% ROI provide clear value, especially with his 2.27 average significantly exceeding typical 1.63 lines in road spots.
What's De'Aaron Fox's average Steals away games?
Fox averages 2.27 steals in away games, which is 0.64 steals above the typical 1.63 line. This 39% differential represents substantial value that the market hasn't properly adjusted for yet.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Fox steals overs specifically in away games where the sample shows consistent edge. Avoid home games where this trend doesn't apply, and focus on road spots against uptempo teams that create more steal opportunities.