De'Aaron Fox demonstrates exceptional consistency in the assists market, hitting the over in 58.3% of games (21-15-0 record) while averaging 6.25 assists against a 5.81 line. The +0.4 differential coupled with an 11.4% ROI on overs presents a clear lean over with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Fox's assists prop presents one of the cleaner trends in the NBA, driven by his role as Sacramento's primary facilitator and the team's uptempo offensive system. The 6.25 average against a 5.81 line reflects books consistently undervaluing his playmaking ceiling, particularly given his 36.2 minutes per game and the Kings' pace-heavy approach that creates more possession opportunities. The 58.3% over rate isn't just statistical noise—it stems from Fox's ability to generate assists through both half-court sets and transition opportunities, where Sacramento ranks among the league's most aggressive teams. The longest over streak of six games suggests Fox can sustain hot stretches when the offense clicks, while the modest three-game under streak indicates he rarely goes cold for extended periods. What makes this trend particularly reliable is Fox's durability and consistent usage—he's not a player whose role fluctuates dramatically based on game script or opponent. The 11.4% ROI on overs validates this isn't just a volume play but a genuine edge, though the -20.4% under ROI serves as a reminder that when Fox struggles, it tends to be decisive.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Fox's consistent role as Sacramento's primary facilitator, combined with the Kings' pace-heavy system, creates natural assist opportunities that books appear to undervalue at 5.81. The 6.25 average and 58.3% over rate suggest sustainable value, particularly in games where Sacramento faces teams that push tempo or struggle defensively in transition. Main risk is potential blowouts where Fox sits extended fourth quarters.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-21 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 5.5 | 10.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 7.5 | 9.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is De'Aaron Fox's Assists prop record all games?
Fox's assists prop shows a 21-15-0 record over 36 games, hitting the over 58.3% of the time. He averages 6.25 assists against a typical 5.81 line, creating a consistent +0.4 edge that has generated an 11.4% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on De'Aaron Fox Assists all games?
Lean over on Fox's assists props. His 6.25 average against the 5.81 line, combined with Sacramento's pace-heavy system and his role as primary facilitator, creates sustainable value. The 58.3% over rate and positive ROI support this approach.
What's De'Aaron Fox's average Assists all games?
Fox averages 6.25 assists per game against a typical 5.81 line, creating a +0.4 differential. This gap reflects books undervaluing his playmaking ceiling in Sacramento's uptempo system, where he consistently generates assists through both transition and half-court opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Fox assists overs in games against teams that push pace or struggle defensively in transition. Avoid during potential blowouts where he might sit extended fourth quarters. His consistent role and Sacramento's system make most game situations favorable for over bets.