Darius Garland's assists prop at home presents a compelling over opportunity with a 66.7% hit rate (14-7-0 record) and exceptional 27.3% ROI. Despite averaging just 6.76 assists against a 6.74 line, the consistency of clearing the number makes this a strong lean over play.
Expert Analysis
The strength in Garland's home assists prop lies not in explosive averages but in remarkable consistency above the betting line. His 66.7% over rate across 21 home games demonstrates a sustainable edge that books haven't properly adjusted for, creating ongoing value for sharp bettors. The 27.3% ROI on overs tells the real story - this isn't about massive assist totals but about consistently exceeding modest expectations. Garland's floor appears higher at home, likely due to increased comfort in Cleveland's system, better chemistry with teammates in familiar surroundings, and potentially more aggressive playmaking when the crowd energy elevates the pace. The minimal 0.02 differential between his average and the typical line suggests books are pricing this correctly on paper, but missing the distribution factor. Garland rarely posts disaster games at home, with his longest under streak capped at just three games compared to an eight-game over run. This pattern suggests the prop benefits from positive game script more often at home, whether through better offensive flow or simply Garland's comfort level facilitating more effectively. The sustainability concerns are minimal given the sample size and consistency of execution.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 66.7% hit rate and 27.3% ROI create clear value despite the tight average-to-line differential. Garland's home assists prop benefits from consistency rather than ceiling, making it ideal for steady profit accumulation. The main risk is regression to his road form, but 21 games provide sufficient evidence of a legitimate home-court advantage in his playmaking.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-25 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 7.5 | 2.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Darius Garland's Assists prop record home games?
Garland's assists prop at home shows a 14-7-0 record (66.7% overs) with an average of 6.76 assists against a typical 6.74 line, generating a strong 27.3% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Darius Garland Assists home games?
Bet the over on Garland's assists at home. The 66.7% hit rate and 27.3% ROI provide clear value, with consistent performance suggesting books haven't properly adjusted for his home-court playmaking advantage.
What's Darius Garland's average Assists home games?
Garland averages 6.76 assists in home games, just 0.02 above the typical 6.74 line. However, this minimal differential masks his 66.7% rate of clearing the number, creating betting value through consistency.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Garland's assists overs in all Cleveland home games. His consistency at home eliminates the need to pick spots, with the 21-game sample showing sustainable value regardless of opponent or game situation.